Archbishop Williams and lunacy

What was the man thinking. He is said to be "upset" and clearly had no idea of the impact he could have when giving this speech. I tend to agree with comments from some in and around the synod who say that he is best locked away in a university where he thoughts and musings can be kicked around and discussed without it being front page news.

He is head of the church. His words are listened to especially on such a controversial issue.

In any event the answer from the Gov, the Tories, the media, infact everyone, has been unequivecal- NO you are wrong on this.

Religious conscience should not have a place in state law. It is a recipe for disaster. Go and read the God Delusion and see what madness this all is.

Anyway I would not stop anyone wanting to adhere to a faith but that should not affect the rule of law or even be given particular consideration when contact between the two takes place.

Dr Williams may be clever, but the speech (and timing) was dumb. He should get on with representing and promoting the Church of which he is head or go and be a scholar.

George Osborne

If he wants to send his kids to private school then fine. What is everyones problem? It's his money and his choice and it is doubtless the best option for his kids.

The UK independent sector as a whole educates 620,000 children in around 2,500 independent schools. This represents just under 7% of the total number of schoolchildren in the UK (and just over 7% of the total number of schoolchildren in England). It also represents 23% of sixth form pupils
and the number is growing rapidly. This is hardly a surprise given the condition of state education in some areas of the country. The private school exhibition in london this year was the most vistied ever.

It was not wealthy parents but people from all over who had had enough of state education and were wiling to sacrifice a great deal to get their kids what they perceived as a better education.

So Osborne is by no means alone.

Channel 4 political awards

The Countryside Alliance won an award and got booed. Disgraceful.

Baroness Anelay won an award and thoroughly deserved it. She is a brilliant operator in the Lords, who always prepares in detail and who plays the cards right in all Lords debates. Definitely one of the best in shadow Home Affairs team.

Peter Hain and donorgate

Hain is symptomatic of the New Labour disease. There are too many ongoing investigations into dodgy donors and too many past mistakes right from the beginning. Despite their own new piece of legislation designed to be "whiter than white" they have managed to mess it all up.

Now it appear as though they hold the law in contempt. Certainly Hain has shown he beleives politicians should be treated differently from the "plebs".

Donorgate will continue and will haunt them. It should. Hoist by their own pertard.

Maybe Polly Toynbee can be like us!

Polly is not happy with Gordon Brown after yet another poor week for the PM. He was supposed to be in the middle of a new year relaunch. Anyway this is the best bit from polly, for more see here. (I still don't like her!)

"These are the images that the ghost of the election yet to come would summon up for Ebeneezer Scrooge Brown. Is it too late, Brown might ask the ghost. No, of course not. It's never too late for redemption - or "change" as Brown calls it without changing anything. For despite all this, the Tories are still only a few points ahead, nowhere near where they should be. That's some comfort, but frankly it's hard to believe enough people would turn out to vote for four more years of this. A pusillanimous cabinet bungles its safety-first policies, failing to appease unappeasable enemies while losing most of its friends. But imagine if Labour now reversed all this week's cornucopia of bad decisions. Look into the future - and avoid it."

If the PM and No.1 bunker can keep annoying their friends in the media like the above demonstrates they have, then they really will be in trouble.

Ken V Boris

The latest polling shows that while Boris is close to Ken he is not closing as quickly as you would expect.

Ken has been in big trouble over all sorts of scandals in the last few weeks and yet this has had no impact in the latest polling. Weird isn't it.

Still Boris is raising a lot of money and has also had a haircut, but I have not seen it!

The Future

It seems to me as though the sheer volume of political events will enable Brown to win the next election.

He has had a terrible few months and the mistakes of the last ten years are enormous.

However if he has a go, via his legislation, of getting on with the job that may well just be enough.

That really does seem incredible to me. The scale of the problems either not solved or further inflamed by labour are vast.

But events keep happening and don't allow us to sit back and take a broad view of it all.
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

Brown gets the headlines on IHT

It looked cheeky to begin with but the more the city has looked the more they don't like it. It would seem that there has been a bit of spin. (I know shock horror). See what KPMG say below:

PBR: IHT move grabs headlines but will anyone be better off?
Tax 09 October 2007

Commenting on today’s announcement to raise the IHT threshold to £600,000,Carolyn Steppler, tax director at KPMG in the UK<, said:

“This change, although likely to grab headlines, is in practice only giving to most people what they already have.

“Many married couples will already have drafted wills to allow each spouse to take advantage of their nil rate band through the use of a nil rate band discretionary trust. This was possible even for the family home.

“It is very disappointing to note that the proposals will not benefit unmarried or non-Civil Partnership couples, or siblings who have lived together as in the recent case of the elderly Burden sisters – who had lived together all their lives before one sister faced having to sell the house in her eighties when her sister died.”

Ed Balls and Iain Duncan Smith

From Play Political- Balls and IDS clash on BBCtv's Daily Politics

Iain Duncan Smith and Ed Balls clash on BBC2's Daily Politics about Gordon Brown's visit to Iraq to announce troop withdrawals and Conservative plans to cut inheritance tax.

This is good stuff. We need driven, angry Tory M's that have had enough of Labour. Do you trust Ed Balls? Me neither.

The Brown Press Conference

Adam Boulton, Nick Robinson and Tom Oborne have had a go on the election issue. He has handled it quite well if only allowing a question at a time. Clearly though it cannot be good to face one tough question after another.

Have to see how it ends but he is doing okay in the face of a very annoyed bunch of political hacks.

Update: why doesnt he just say that he wants to make a case for his "vision" and the polls show he has yet to do so on newly raised issues like IHT.

Update II: Tom Oborne is back with a 2nd attack Q. Brown still maintaining he could have won but wants to sell his vision for change first. This is a rubbish line and anyway what is his vision? He referred earlier to the last manifesto. If it is all in there then why does he need time to set it out again.

Update III: Am blogging from home due to stomach turmoil. Was on the road to recovery half an hour ago but a glass of water seems to have been an error.

The YouGov/ Sunday Times Poll

The YouGov / Sunday Times poll shows that Brown really could have taken a battering if an election had been held. I would have to look in more detail at more polls to be convinced that we Tories could really have done so well, however there is no doubt it did look bad for Brown and so maybe it was the right call.

The Tories are shown ahead 41 to 38, but amongst those certain to vote their lead rises to 45-36. Pretty amazing turnaround. I am still not convince that it is a solid lead but yes certainly enough to cause doubt among Brown and Co.

The stats on Iraq and the military look pretty bad too for Brown. Good, the Government deserve a pasting for asking the military to do more and more and yet funding them less and less.

Was Gordon just not ready

That is what Fraser Nelson suggests on the Spectator website and it could just be correct. He was commenting have seen Brown's interview with Marr. Brown does look worried, there is no denying it.

The machine is not unbreakable, certainly there was a technical fault.

What will Monday bring?

The Labour spon machine has become legendary, so I am looking forward to seeing what and how they spin themselves out of this mess.

Can they reverse the bad headlines in a week, will they be saved by events or will neither happen?

BBC does the paper round well

Taken from the BBC. I like the summary, it is handy.


Press field day over 'bottler' PM
They may be tomorrow's chip paper, but the Sunday editions will make painful reading for the PM - or "Bottler Brown" as many are calling him.
His decision not to hold an early poll has fired the gun for that cruellest of sports - a press field day.
Mr Brown gets a thorough going over in both the broadsheets and the tabloids.
And in what is surely a first, both the Mail on Sunday and Independent on Sunday opt for the same headline: "Brown bottles it."
Papers of all persuasions agree that the PM's "dithering" has damaged his reputation for strong leadership and as a conviction politician.
Predictions of a stronger than expected Tory fightback also abound. Most cite Conservative tax proposals as the decisive factor in their sudden turnaround in the polls.
And just as it was The Sun "Wot Won It" in 1992, the News of the World says it "killed" Election 2007 with a poll showing the PM would lose his majority.
Mr Brown is now "on notice" and vulnerable to attacks from the Labour left, it warns. He has "squandered" the political capital gained since taking over from Tony Blair.
In the Observer, Mr Brown is facing a full-blown "political crisis" and will "pay for his unwise gamble".
Columnist Andrew Rawnsley predicts the retreat will "prompt a reassessment of the Prime Minister that will not be to his advantage".
The Sunday Telegraph also devotes acres of space to the prime minister's "climbdown". But its editorial concludes his decision is "the right one".
Columnist Matthew d'Ancona taunts the PM that his "colour will now be yellow" and that he has "only himself to blame".
In the Sunday Times Mr Brown is "all mouth and no trousers" - helpfully illustrated with a mocked-up picture of the PM in his boxer shorts.
It concludes he is a "victim of his own spin" and says the country will think less highly of him.
Meanwhile, an article by Tory leader David Cameron goads that the Tories are ready but the PM is not.
The Independent on Sunday's John Rentoul says Mr Brown has gone from "sure-footed statesman to nervous wreck" in the space of a week.
An editorial concludes it is the "right decision, wrong reason" and that having promised to play straight, Mr Brown looks "insincere" after stoking election speculation.
A Shrank cartoon depicts a sweating PM gnawing fingernails emblazoned with the words "No. Yes. No!"
The Mail on Sunday also expects the PM to "pay a high price for his cynical game". Its columnist Julia Langdon says the episode has highlighted Mr Brown's fatal flaw - the "funking" of make-or-break decisions.
However, the Sunday Mirror offers a ray of hope, arguing that Mr Brown has shown he is fallible, but now has time to prove himself the "remarkable" PM that he is.
The Sunday Express says Mr Brown - hailed by Tony Blair as the "clunking fist" - has been immortalised as the "clucking fist" by internet jokers. The paper's opinion column also accuses him of playing chicken over an early poll.
"Gutless Brown proves he has no stomach for a fight," it declares.
Scotland's most famous "son of the Manse" gets an equally rough ride on his home turf. Scotland on Sunday claims he faces a crisis of confidence amid concerns that he has "lost his nerve".
Meanwhile, the Sunday Herald laments a week in which the "Brown bounce led to an own goal". The Scottish Mail on Sunday reports SNP leader Alex Salmond's quip that the PM is "not so much the Grand Old Duke of York - more the big feartie from Fife".

Brown's Bad Day- repeated

Every single sunday paper has given Brown a pasting. The commentors in the media are having a field day. No one is claiming this has been handled well. Douglas Alexander is being slaughtered by his own side and Salmond has just had a go at him. In fact Balls, Milliband and Alexander will not be liking the young turks tag at all. They have been mullered.

Andrew Marr appears to have lost more credibility amongst his politico mates and his interview with Brown was not brilliant. He could have had a go at Brown but did not really get stuck in. Plus what was Polly Toynbee doing on Sunday AM.

But will this all blow over in a week or two? I think Brown will hell a hell of a week ahead but will try and dominate the headlines with some public spending spin. However he has upset the media and the public (you know those who live outside Westminster village) will not think its all over for Brown but they will be willing to question him more and have this debacle in the back of their minds.

Its a credibility thing and Brown has taken a knock.

Finally I think this will hel lead to a Brown defeat in 2 years time. The tide has been slowly turning for a year or so. This mess is a continuation of that. The Tories still have a long way to go but are on the right track.

The only tiny, tiny, tiny positive for Brown is that he knows a bit more about Tory policies such as Tax and social policy. But boy what a price to pay for such info. If that was the genius plan, to draw out Tory policies, then it was a rubbish one. If Brown geneuinely wanted an election he went about messing up that possibility with spin. Crazy fool!

Why Labour should have had an election

If Brown and Co had not handled it so badly they would have been able to have the election.

My reasons for an election now if the above had not occurred:

• The economy. It probably will get worse next year.


• House prices. Outside London they are dropping.


• Personal debt. It is massive and would not be helped by a downturn.


• Tax. It is annoying people.


• 10 years in power. People want change and having given Brown a chance people will say enough is enough in 2009.


• Europe. This issue is now plaguing Labour and not the Tories. What a reverse.


• Tories are on the rise. The Labour Cabinet is not what is was. The best have moved on.


• The majority gave Brown a cusion that cold afford a few slip ups and still deliver victory.

I understand that there are several reasons not to go:

• The winter.


• The recent polls.


• EU Treaty.


• Electoral registor.


• Scotland.


• Tory resurgance.

But they do not outweigh the positives in my opinion. Clearly Brown has not come to the same conclusion but I tend to agree with Steve Richards of The Independent who is accusing Brown of having made a "colossal mistake". Brown will be accused of bottling it and although he will shrug off the short term strom it will haunt Brown and Labour in 2 years time. The Labour party will be down about this. They have been marched up the hill and now marched down in the face of a resurgent Tory party. The Labour supporters heads dropping is good news and hard to reverse. They will start to think that maybe they are on the ebb. I hope and believe they are right about that.

Courage no- Brown bottled it

NO

Six point Tory lead in the marginals says NOTW

Fraser Nelson, who is a columnist for NOTW says on the Speccie blog-

"There is a six-point Tory lead in the marginals – yes, a six point Tory lead: 44% to 38%. It suggests that, if Brown did go, he’d lose his majority. Labour would still be the biggest party, with 306 seats to the 246 for the Tories. It also confirms what ministers told me anecdotally: that Labour voters are less likely to turn out in November. When asked, 59% said they’d go to the polls against 71% of Tories. ICM polled in the 83 most marginal Tory-Labour seats, interviewing 1,026 people between 2 and 5 October. So if anything, this underestimates the full impact of the Tory conference. If any Tory sees Michael Ashcroft in the bar tonight, they should buy him a drink. His marginal strategy worked. Brown has been scared off."

Is the election off? NOTW thinks so.

Doooohhhhhh!

I thought he would have an election. I thought until recently we would be smashed again. I still think he would win by 30 or 40 seats but clearly the labour heirarchy think the time has gone.

Damnit.

But if he does not go now when will he? It will probably have to be as late as possible and I reckon he will lose then.

Patrick Mercer is back on board

Best news I have heard all week. He is an extremely good bloke and it is good to hear he is sorting himself out and leaving the loony bin that is Browns big tent.

Good luck Patrick

I am afraid his advice on security issues was valuable to but not valued by Labour.