Russian Bear

Everyone has come to the view that the Russians have gone nuts and will aggressively defend "their" sphere of influence. Certainly the Georgia intervention was a case of protecting such a thing. Well I understand to an extent their position:

The Russian State has always considered itself as a strong man. It has had to put up with 15 to 20 years of weakness when the West could expand its sphere of influence. Now the Russians are back. They have Oil and Gas and can throw their weight around. They feel the EU and NATO are messing in their backyard and they can't understand why Europe would take that risk. In the Ruskies minds all they have to to is threaten to turn the gas and oil taps off and all hell will break loose in Europe. They are right off course.

So it will all end in stalemate. Europe will bluster but do nothing and Russia will not do anything so overtly aggressive again in the near future. The reason why? Because if Russia did carry our their threat to turn the taps off it would hurt them as well as us. (just look at the recent performance of their stock market - it has dived).

So really all we have learnt recently is that Russia will not be "pushed around" by the West. They are back on the map. If they went further and intervened elsewhere or turned off the taps it would be a massive gamble and I can't see what incentive they would have for doing it.

(Still doesnt help Georgia. A sovereign nation - that situation requires a UN peacekeeping force and gradual transition back to normality and the official forming of semi autonmous regions).

We shall see.