APOCALYPSE NOW - AVERTED

Today has been a bad day in the credit markets and the stock market has not recovered but it has calmed a bit.

However the main news is that the FSA has banned the short selling of financial stocks. Will this halt the impending disaster? I suspect that there is a lot of bad news to come. The Banks still need hundreds of billions of fresh cash to shore up their balance sheets and a frozen credit market is still not helping. So the easy lending days are gone. However with the US and the UK regulators both acting to stop short selling it may calm the stock market and give the brokers a chance to cool down too and get a nights sleep.

Still we are left with the question of whether the attacks on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will be successful? And will the European and even some Asian banks admit to losses? Europe certainly needs an honesty session.

It was a mob killing

I blame father time for influencing the British public and clearing encouraging them to kill Labour. Surely its attempted murder and I suspect it will end up in a brutal brutal killing.

Its all ebbs and flows you see. That is my theory of everything.

Destruction in sight

According to Electoral Calculus, this would give the Tories 493 seats, Labour 121 and leave the Lib Dems on 8 seats.

Would love to be a fly on the wall in No. 10 tonight.

Lloyds rescues HBOS

Great news for Lloyds in terms of grabbing market share. Lets just hope they haven't bought toxic assets.

Also shows the FSA, the Bank of England and the rest in proactive mode.

But further highlights just how nightmarish this banking crisis is. Apparently HBOs was leaking deposits on a massive scale. It had to be sold before the leak became a flood. Before the middle classes hit the tinternet and started moving there money.

The stock market has still tanked and this is not over.

Labour Isn't Working (Again)

On any normal news day, the fact that unemployment has gone up by 5% in one month - let me repeat that, 5% in one month, would have been the top story of the day. Yet, it has been eclipsed by the Lloyds/HBOS story. Unemployment is at a nine year high. For a government which defines economic success by the length of the dole queues, this is a bitter blow. I have been trying in vain to Google the figures for April 1997, but it seems sure that very soon the headline unemployment figure will soon exceed that which existed when Labour took power.

One economist predicted that unemployment would reach 2 million by the end of the year. I'll make another prediction. Next month the rate will rise by more than 100,000. That is one prediction I hope very much will be wrong.

Home Office caught out over immigration statistics

Good spot from three line whip

Well, well: the statistical chickens are coming home to roost for a government that has long played fast and loose with official figures.

The Home Office apologised for interfering with immigration figures

The Home Office has been forced to say sorry for seeking to interfere in the way immigration figures were released recently.

It seems old habits die hard. In order to inject some credibility into official figures, the Government agreed that they should all be issued by a new arm's length body under the auspices of the new UK Statistics Authority.

But when immigration figures were published last week, the Home Office sent an official along to the Office for National Statistics briefing to hand out a press release that gave a distinctly unbalanced take on the subject.

The Home Office decided that the subject of greatest importance was a decline in the number of eastern Europeans coming to the UK, a line that was apparently followed up by at least one national newspaper.

Now, Prof David Hand, the head of the Royal Statistical Society, has complained that this "succeeded in partially diverting some journalists' attention away from the comprehensive range of data being presented towards one specific issue".

In truth, it should not have had this effect because any journalist following immigration and crime figures over the years have known to take any Home Office press notice with a pinch of salt.

They are always selective with their use of the statistics in order to cast the government in a positive light. That is why public faith in official figures has plummeted over the years.

As Prof Hand says in a letter to Sir Michal Scholar, head of the UK Statistics Authority: "The whole incident epitomises some of the bad practices that have helped to undermine public confidence in official statistics.... At worst this can help to 'bury' news perceived as unfavourable to the Government."

When you think of the vast sums of our money spent by the Government we at least have a basic right to know, without any statistical jiggery pokery, what we are getting for it.

Yet finding the truth, or anything like it, is often impossible because yardsticks are changed, goalposts moved, timescales altered, benchmarks lowered - all to make failure as difficult to discern as possible.

On the positive side, however, we appear to be seeing that rare creature: a state regulator with teeth. Previously, there was a Statistics Commission that was meant to keep an eye on all this but it was powerless to stop the abuse.

The head of the new statutory authority, Sir Michael Scholar, is a former permanent secretary at the Department of Trade and Industry. In an interview with this newspaper, he likened the creation of the authority to Gordon Brown's decision to give independence to the Bank of England in 1997. "Good statistics are as important as sound money or clean water," he said.

Maybe the Home Office and other departments have now got the message.

The Polls are horrendous for Labour

Today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times was taken between 10th and 12th September. As well as a strong Tory lead, the poll also shows the Liberal Democrats down 2 points as the party's conference kicks off.

"The YouGov survey for The Sunday Times puts the Conservatives up one, on 46%, and Labour up two, on 27%...

"The Liberal Democrats, gathering in Bournemouth for their annual conference, are down two points on 16%.

"Some 73% of voters felt Mr Brown was doing a bad job as prime minister, compared with 20% who thought he was doing well.

"That gave him a net negative rating of 53%, while Tory leader David Cameron had a net positive rating of 27%."

Happy days for the Tories, very depressing for Labour. We shall have to see if the conference season does actually change anything.

Is Mugger Mugabe Muted

Or has he kept his grip on power. From the gossip that has come out of the negotiations it seems he will maintain his presidential position, control of the army and the cabinet. Tsvangari gets to be Prime Minister, controls the Police and has a panel to revue policy. It seems to me that if that proves correct then Mugabe will be happy. He can let Morgan get on with sorting the economy and getting the 1 and half billion dollars of international aid flowing, safe in the knowledge that as President he cannot be charged with war crimes. Furthermore he can be a pest and stop Morgan fully implementing his plans if he does not like them.

We shall see on Monday when the deal is announced.

I fear Mugabe is not done yet.

Time For A Leadership Election says the Times

I agree. Read here for their take on it.

Political Betting agrees with the analysis.

Brown has had it anyway but calling their bluff and winning would delay the inevitable for him.

Dominic Grieve draws the line

And he is right. Today the Times spots that the government has "quietly sanctioned the powers for sharia judges to rule on cases ranging from divorce and financial disputes to those involving domestic violence".

Apparently rulings issued by a network of five sharia courts are enforceable with the full power of the judicial system, through the county courts or High Court. The decision has been welcomed by Inayat Bunglawala from the Muslim Council of Britain.

Sheikh Faiz-ul-Aqtab Siddiqi, whose Muslim Arbitration Tribunal runs the courts, said he had taken advantage of a clause in the Arbitration Act 1996.

Under the act, the sharia courts are classified as arbitration tribunals. The rulings of arbitration tribunals are binding in law, provided that both parties in the dispute agree to give it the power to rule on their case.

Siddiqi said: “We realised that under the Arbitration Act we can make rulings which can be enforced by county and high courts. The act allows disputes to be resolved using alternatives like tribunals. This method is called alternative dispute resolution, which for Muslims is what the sharia courts are.”

Jewish Beth Din courts operate under the same provision in the Arbitration Act and resolve civil cases, ranging from divorce to business disputes. They have existed in Britain for more than 100 years, and previously operated under a precursor to the act.

Dominic Grieve, the shadow home secretary, said: “If it is true that these tribunals are passing binding decisions in the areas of family and criminal law, I would like to know which courts are enforcing them because I would consider such action unlawful. British law is absolute and must remain so.”

Douglas Murray, the director of the Centre for Social Cohesion, said: “I think it’s appalling. I don’t think arbitration that is done by sharia should ever be endorsed or enforced by the British state.”

All a bit tricky really. The Beth Din is allowed to operate so why not the Sharia courts. Its because of fear, fear of the future. If the British Rule of law is not enforced now then it has had it. In the future the Muslim population is going to be very large. Fine its part of the changei Britain and the world. However we cannot have a parallel legal system. it won't work and could cause all sorts of social problems.

Therefore I agree with Dominic Grieve. The line must be drawn now. If that means amending legislation then do it even if it affects the Beth Din and Sharia Courts.

Party Conferences - What Fun

1) Do the Lib Dems really need a 5 day conference even if they do discuss policy - no.

2) Are the Lib Dems annoyed that the Labour night of the long knives on Brown has stolen the headlines - Yes they don't get much coverage and this is their chance.

3) Will the Conservatives blow our minds at their conference in Brum - No they will be desperate to avoid a mistake and loving the new found attention of the lobby industry who have massively stepped up their interest in the Tories. Champagne all round.

4) Labour Conference - For the delegates it will be misery as they watch their party at first hand attempt to decapitate itself. For the media it will be a frenzy.

5) Will we be any more informed as the general publc afterwards - No.

6) Will the Politicos have had a good time and enjoyed the freebies - Ohh yes.

This can't last Jonah!

Poor Prime Mentalist, as Guido Fawkes would say. I do think I am beginning to feel sorry for him which is disgraceful. Its just that I can see this being a protracted and painful end. This man will cling on to the post he has striven for his entire life and just not been up to it when he got there. That in itself must hurt but the bad luck and bitter way this is ending must hurt even more.

It just can't go on though. Labour need to back him or sack him. If they choose the latter then they need to start thinking about who can succeed him. I think thats where the problems start. The idea that Brown has failed is not the issue, its agreed. The issue is what to to about it.

The Country at large, the media and the Labour Party itself are going to tire of this mess. While the issue of leadership festers it leaves the Conservatives completely off the hook. The media and the PLP are not challenging them at all and there are a few areas where they could.

Get Carter - Carter Got

"Stephen Carter being moved down the pecking order inside the Number 10 bunker - from chief strategist to not so chief strategist? - is a sign that more blood will flow, and soon, in the Number 10 bunker." - So says the Times. Well Carter is on the way out but its not a bad thing is it? Just what understanding did he possess of big time politics. Answer = None.

So no wonder the Brown loyalists want him gone,m but its not infighting its just they think he is crap and not up to it at a time when they really need quality. Does it mean further blood on the floor will follow as a consequence? No, there will be more blood on the carpet in 10 Downing Street because the Labour Party is in decline. The two things are not the same.

Brown V Darling

There has been talk today that Brown may have to ditch Darling after the "terrible" interview Darling gave to the Guardian. Further, Downing Street are "fuming" and the attack dogs are straining at the leash.

Well what rubbish. Brown and Darling go way back. They are friends and their families get on well. So I just can't see it at all. I can see that Brown may be a bit miffed and will have asked Darling what he was on about. Also I can imagine Darling thinking that perhaps he could have phrased it all a bit differently and not been so relaxed as he was in his holiday home. Certainly Darling looks knackered despite his holiday.

The BBC interview in which Darling can be seen to be flustered about it all is here: Brian Taylor's interview. But having a trembling lip and being flustered is a long way from being sacked folowing a major fallout with Brown. They are friends. They have a slightly different view on what line to take on the economy. But both understand how tricky it is going to be.

Finally if Darling is ditched in yet another suicidal move by Brown thenwho will replace Darling?

Home Office Proposal - Post Charge questionning

All well and good this idea BUT:

a) The Police have had to improve their questionning to make sure they have enough prior to charge. This proposed change would allow them to get lazy and just ask for a post charge interview. That is not efficient.

b) The whole reason for stooping this practice 24 years ago was to stop abuse and oppressive questionning etc.

c) The most important impact will be this; They legal services commission will have to completely change the fee structure for solicitors attending at Police Stations. At the the moment it is all fixed fee. But if solicitors have to keep coming back for post charge interviews as part of the fixed fee then only one thing will happen. Criminal solicitors cannot take such a loss of income (it is hard enough as it is). Therefore they will simply refuse to attend or tell the client to no comment via phone. This will not be in the interests of justice.

I doubt this has been thought about but it willbe a big problem.

Finally remember that police can re interview post charge at the moment but only if they have a very good reason. (surely that is the best approach).

The Polls - The nightmare continues

ConservativeHome - "The Tories remain well ahead in the latest YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph. CCHQ insist there is no room for complacency and that's one of the reasons there was annoyance at Eric Pickles for his recent suggestion that it was "impossible" for Labour to win the next election."

How many months has the lead been around this mark for now? Must be 5 or 6 at least. Brown is absolutely finished. His personal ratings are still the worst for any primeminister ever and any hope of recovery is going to be scuppered by the economy. The Tories need to maintain a steady course and be the viable alternative. Yes more concrete policies are needed but not yet. (Labour would only nick them and then implement them abysmally).


Plus this is mid term polling and the Tories always do better at election time so we could add on a few more percentage points on to the above.

However the fact that bondary changes will affect the majority of seats next time means calculating possible majorities is virtually impossible and futile because nominal figures are tricky.

Still another 20 point lead spells continued gloom in the Brown Bunker.

Russian Bear

Everyone has come to the view that the Russians have gone nuts and will aggressively defend "their" sphere of influence. Certainly the Georgia intervention was a case of protecting such a thing. Well I understand to an extent their position:

The Russian State has always considered itself as a strong man. It has had to put up with 15 to 20 years of weakness when the West could expand its sphere of influence. Now the Russians are back. They have Oil and Gas and can throw their weight around. They feel the EU and NATO are messing in their backyard and they can't understand why Europe would take that risk. In the Ruskies minds all they have to to is threaten to turn the gas and oil taps off and all hell will break loose in Europe. They are right off course.

So it will all end in stalemate. Europe will bluster but do nothing and Russia will not do anything so overtly aggressive again in the near future. The reason why? Because if Russia did carry our their threat to turn the taps off it would hurt them as well as us. (just look at the recent performance of their stock market - it has dived).

So really all we have learnt recently is that Russia will not be "pushed around" by the West. They are back on the map. If they went further and intervened elsewhere or turned off the taps it would be a massive gamble and I can't see what incentive they would have for doing it.

(Still doesnt help Georgia. A sovereign nation - that situation requires a UN peacekeeping force and gradual transition back to normality and the official forming of semi autonmous regions).

We shall see.

Mugger Mugabe - Exit Now Mate

Shouted at, heckled, booed and chanted at during the state opening of Parliament< Mugabe left annoyed and shocked. He could not believe what had just happened. That showed to me just how hopelessly out if touch he is and what a complete state of denial he was in.

However he refuses to go. He is playing all his cards in the power sharing talks. Every year people predict he will go. Yet he is still there clinging to power as are the military chiefs that keep so close to him.

At 84 maybe it will be infirmity that will get him in the end.

PS. Come on Thabo Umbeki. Keep the pressure up and prove that your queit diplomacy was the best way after all.

Tower Hamlets and Ramadan

Stories about none Muslim Councillors not being able to eat during Council meetings while Ramadan is on are not helpful at all for community cohesion. Tower Hamlets cannot have any idea about the upset this kind of story causes nationwide. It grates with the majority of people and creates negative views.

If not true they should get out there and say so, now. If true they should change policy rapidly.

The pres should also be careful how they report stories like this. They must make sure it is true and report it neutrally.

Darling - “arguably the worst” slump in 60 years

Not a helpful comment for Brown and the Government, but is it true? If you brought a house a couple of years ago then you are not happy now; paying energy bills and putting petrol in the car is painful now; if you were starting to take your pension now then you will be getting about 20% less than a few years ago;the banks have yet to work through the credit crisis fallout; so mortgages and house sales are still low; unemployment is expected to top 2 million by Christmas; the Poles are going home, is that a sign?; the high street claims to be in agony; personal debt is still enormous and the Treasury is skint.

Yes there is a problem but at this stage its not the worst thing to happen in sixty years. The fact he said anything is key. Darling clearly wants to brace us for the future and make sure he is not blamed for it.

It is almost unprecedented for a Chancellor to speak out like this. So the presure is beginning to tell. Brown will also be pissed off that Darling has said the voters are "pissed off" with NuLabour. It just does not help and diverts attention from the economic relaunch plan. That plan seems No.10 driven and may be another reason for Darling speaking out as he and the Treasury are being sidelined in the process.