Casualties of Chaos

It is difficult to comprehend the magnitude of all this chaos. It appears to be madness on the global stockmarkets at the moment as people have lost confidence and expect a whopping recession.

Surely things have to settle soon.

Steady as she goes

These three so called "big beasts" have a difficult job on their hands. They have to do enough in policy terms to not be accused of being a vacuum (which they aren't) but they don't want to do too much otherwise Labour will steel all their policies and badly implement them.

Secondly they have to watch the Labour attack line on them lacking experience on the economy. (Cameron did well in his conference speech dealing with that - they must maintain it).

Finally they have to make sure the Tory fringes don't get too excited otherwise there could be a bit too much gossip and moaning that could detract from Labours collapse. Over confidence would be a disaster.

If these issues can be handled then good polls should be maintained and a Labour loss realised at the next election.

Only 18 months to go!

Word Game

Mildly interesting stuff from the BBC on what the key words were at the political conferences:

The battle lines for the next general election are clearly drawn in the conference speeches of David Cameron and Gordon Brown.

The prime minister made "fairness" the key theme of his speech, mentioning it 22 times. Mr Cameron did not mention it at all, perhaps to avoid fighting Mr Brown on his own terms.

The Conservative leader instead made "responsibility" and "character" the twin themes of his own speech (20 and 10 times respectively), words that were barely used by Gordon Brown.

Mr Cameron, along with his Lib Dem counterpart Nick Clegg, clearly sense that Mr Brown is vulnerable on the issue of taxation. They each mentioned taxes at least 10 times, while the prime minister did not say the word once.

There is an additional fight going on over who is the party of change. Cameron said it 20 times, Brown 17 times and Clegg nine times.

Zimbabwe unity cabinet talks fail

The BBC notes that - Talks between Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and the new Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai have failed to reach agreement on a unity cabinet.

The two signed a power-sharing deal nearly three weeks ago after disputed presidential elections in June.

It was agreed that Mr Mugabe - Zimbabwe's leader for three decades - would remain president while Mr Tsvangirai would become prime minister.

Both sides said they would meet early next week to resume negotiations.

A spokesman for Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said the discussions had been "frank and realistic" but that negotiations remained deadlocked.

Mr Mugabe's spokesman, George Charamba, said differences remained over who should hold the finance and home affairs portfolios.

Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has confirmed he will continue his efforts to mediate the deadlock in Zimbabwe.

Mugger Mugabe will never give in will he? His tenacious ability to cling to power is incredible.

Will the Mandelson gamble pay off for Brown?

I doubt it but it could take some of the media spotlight off Brown and buy him a tiny bit of time. On the other hand Mandy could do for him if they fall out again. I think it would be a historical first if Mandy had to resign from Cabinet for a third time. So many possibilities.

Marginal Murder

The News of the World has conducted one of its marginal seat polls, in 192 Labour-held constituencies – details here. Taken Wednesday through Friday, it indicates Cameron is on course for a 78-seat majority with a 15-point lead. As is normal when a party is ahead by such a margin, the Tories are credited with better policies across the board. The Tory vote is slightly harder in the marginals – 62 percent say they’re certain to vote, v 56 percent for Labour supporters.

The poll would have the following effecton cabinet attendees. Anyone with less than a ten percent majority is in trouble.

Rank, Swing, Incumbent, 2nd, Constituency
1, 3.37%, Jacqui Smith, Con, Redditch
2, 4.66%, Tony McNulty, Con, Harrow East
3, 6.52%, Margaret Beckett, LD, Derby South
4, 7.02%, Jim Murphy, Con, Renfrewshire East
5, 8.25%, Alistair Darling, Con, Edinburgh South West
6, 8.27%, John Hutton, Con, Barrow & Furness
7, 9.58%, Jack Straw, Con, Blackburn
8, 9.59%, Liam Byrne, LD, Birmingham Hodge Hill
9, 10.76%, John Denham, Con, Southampton Itchen
10, 11.82%, James Purnell, Con, Stalybridge & Hyde
11, 11.94%, Nick Brown, LD, Newcastle East & Wallsend
12, 12.15%, Geoff Hoon, Con, Ashfield
13, 13.12%, Shaun Woodward, LD, St Helens South
14, 13.37%, Ed Balls, Con, Normanton
15, 16.99%, Alan Johnson, LD, Hull West & Hessle
16, 17.48%, Douglas Alexander, LD, Paisley & Renfrewshire South
17, 17.58%, Hazel Blears, LD, Salford
18, 20.04%, Ed Miliband, Con, Doncaster North
19, 20.33%, Hilary Benn, LD, Leeds Central
20, 20.38%, David Miliband, LD, South Shields
21, 20.56%, Paul Murphy, Con, Torfaen
22, 21.79%, Gordon Brown, SNP, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
23, 23.14%, Yvette Cooper , Con, Pontefract & Castleford
24, 23.26%, Harriet Harman, LD, Camberwell & Peckham
25, 23.67%, Andy Burnham, Con, Leigh