Spelman Sprinkles some magic

Caroline Spelman rules OK! well nearly. She said "no to more Heathrow" today. Thank god. I agree with her totally, a third runway there is not the answer. Heathrow sucks and blights the lives of millions in the south via noise pollution. The Heathrow lobby group that represents 250 companies and says a third runway is vital can take a running jump. The idea that the world will flee London because there is no third runway is just ridiculous. Our skys are crowded, Heathrow is a giant planning mistake and we should not compound the error, we should build elsewhere.

I also agreed completely with the high speed train network idea. I just hope the timescale is altered as it needs to be fully operational a lot sooner than 2027!

Finally I had to mark down her speech slightly as she tried to talk down Boris' idea of the Thames Estuary Airport. That idea is the great solution to our crowded and noisy sky problem. I think it can and will be built. However I do concede that the financial crisis is not the best time to be talking about spending billions. If you look at the graphic above you can see that it would be easy to link the Thames Estuary Airport into the new high speed railway!

Apocalypse Now - Revisited

If you read Peston's picks blog this afternoon you will have seen this post which neatly summarised how bad a day it was for the world of finance. However he assumed, like most, that the $700 billion congressional bail out would not be voted out. We were all wrong. Its incredible but they rejected it. Stock Markets are now nose diving. Just think, the FTSE had fallen over five percent and closed before the vote - they had assumed the bail out would be voted through. So the Dow Jones cold (and is) falling by a lot more than that.

Shares in banks have been mullered. The virus has spread to Europe with Fortis being bailed out and there are problems in the middle east and Russia with huge losses being made in one form or another. Some "Oligarchs" have lost over $5 billion dollars each - I feel their pain.

Everyone is saying that the Wall Street crisis could spread to main street USA and then the worlds high street. They may well be right which is why its incredible that congress won't return to fix the mess until Thursday. Its just insane.

God alone knows what the FTSE will make of it all tomorrow. Once again all thoughts of taking out the pension have been shelved for hundreds of thousands, jobs are now under threat as well as much much more.

Surely after the next few days the bottom of the financial crisis will have been reached. Then we will have to deal with the wider fallout in the real economy. It looks like a mild downturn in Western world may now be uprated and we could be feeling the big chill.

The Zim Crisis

Sorting out the mess of Zimbabwe's agricultural sector will be key to breathing life back into the country's economy and to the success of the power-sharing deal signed this week.

Firstly, there is to be an audit of the land to eliminate "multiple farm ownerships".

This has long been a call by the former opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which feels that much of the 11m hectares of prime farmland taken from 4,000 mainly white farmers has been given to ruling party loyalists.

The security of tenure the agreement guarantees to land holders, is key to rebooting the sector. Details of the guarantee are yet to be decided, but it is likely that land, now considered state property, will be allocated on 99-year leases.

This will allow capital to be raised, which has stunted new farmers, leaving them unable to pay for equipment and seeds. It will also allow some former farmers to come back. There will now be no race colour or creed barrier.

HOWEVER the main probelm will be the fact that the power sharing agreement is in general insane. It will cause schizophrenia. The only choice for those wishing to invest in Zim is to wait for Mugabe to die. There will then be a huge power struggle and only after that can investors make a rational decision.

STILL - At least Mugger Mugabes grip is weakening and at 84 years old, time is not on his side. once gone the military junta that keeps him on his pedastal (maybe forcibly) will have nowhere to hide and will have to put up or shut up.

Kenya update

Kenya's political parties spent millions of dollars bribing voters in last year's elections, a survey says. The Coalition for Accountable Party Finance says out of $90m raised by the parties, 40% was used as bribes. The report also says public corporations contributed to President Mwai Kibaki’s campaign via his party.

Some 1,500 people died and 600,000 others were displaced during violence following the disputed poll, before the rivals agreed to share power.

The allegations relate to both of Kenya's main parties - the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Mr Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU). ODM leader Raila Odinga last week became Kenya's prime minister (He's not quite as bad as the rest).

The disputed elections were the most competitive in Kenyan history. The lobby group now wants legislation to compel politicians to reveal their sources of income and expenditure during election campaigns.

The BBC has a handy Kenya in Crisis web page

Its all a damn shame. I love Kenya, it is stunning to look at and fun to be in. However it is so corrupt it is untrue, its population is booming resulting in a huge rise in relative poverty and the infrastructure is fading fast. These politicians will not help. Mwai Kibaki is as corrupt as they get. Kenya is in danger in going back to year zero. Sadly I see no way out for it, things get worse each year for the people, its no wonder tehy take the £1 bribe they are given to vote for people. (infact they usually don't vote for them, just take the money and so would you if it amounted to more than a days wages).

Politics Home Mass Marginal Polling

Published today: the PoliticsHome Electoral Index

Largest ever study of marginal seats
PoliticsHome forecast a Conservative majority of 146

In an election now Labour would suffer a 1997 scale defeat
8 cabinet ministers would lose their seats
Three figure majority for David Cameron

An exclusive PoliticsHome study of marginal seats, using an unprecedented sample of almost 35,000 people over 238 marginal constituencies and based on fieldwork carried out by YouGov, gives us the best ever idea of what would happen if a general election were held now.

The full report can be found here

Makes very interesting reading. I find the Labour meltdown prospect in Scotland of note as well as the Labour meltdown in the South. They need to get their scates on and fast. A survey of 35,000 people as well is pretty impressive even if it was done online.

‘Boris Island’ airport

The Sunday Times updates us on the Island in the Sea idea. I back Boris all the way on this and hope it gets done not matter what the scale of objection is from vested interests. I am extremely happy at the idea that Heathrow be phased out once this airport island is built. There is no doubt that aircraft noise pollution blights the lives of all those who live in the west of London. That is millions of people. There are also massive infrstructure problems at Heathrow and the cost of any expansion economically, environmentally and socially is far too great.

That is why the airport in sea, the Thames estuary, would be brilliant. It would allow brand new infrastructure to take the strain. Also the noise pollution issue would virtually disappear. THIS website has lots of infoont he possibilities.

Come on lets build it!

APOCALYPSE NOW - AVERTED

Today has been a bad day in the credit markets and the stock market has not recovered but it has calmed a bit.

However the main news is that the FSA has banned the short selling of financial stocks. Will this halt the impending disaster? I suspect that there is a lot of bad news to come. The Banks still need hundreds of billions of fresh cash to shore up their balance sheets and a frozen credit market is still not helping. So the easy lending days are gone. However with the US and the UK regulators both acting to stop short selling it may calm the stock market and give the brokers a chance to cool down too and get a nights sleep.

Still we are left with the question of whether the attacks on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will be successful? And will the European and even some Asian banks admit to losses? Europe certainly needs an honesty session.

It was a mob killing

I blame father time for influencing the British public and clearing encouraging them to kill Labour. Surely its attempted murder and I suspect it will end up in a brutal brutal killing.

Its all ebbs and flows you see. That is my theory of everything.

Destruction in sight

According to Electoral Calculus, this would give the Tories 493 seats, Labour 121 and leave the Lib Dems on 8 seats.

Would love to be a fly on the wall in No. 10 tonight.

Lloyds rescues HBOS

Great news for Lloyds in terms of grabbing market share. Lets just hope they haven't bought toxic assets.

Also shows the FSA, the Bank of England and the rest in proactive mode.

But further highlights just how nightmarish this banking crisis is. Apparently HBOs was leaking deposits on a massive scale. It had to be sold before the leak became a flood. Before the middle classes hit the tinternet and started moving there money.

The stock market has still tanked and this is not over.

Labour Isn't Working (Again)

On any normal news day, the fact that unemployment has gone up by 5% in one month - let me repeat that, 5% in one month, would have been the top story of the day. Yet, it has been eclipsed by the Lloyds/HBOS story. Unemployment is at a nine year high. For a government which defines economic success by the length of the dole queues, this is a bitter blow. I have been trying in vain to Google the figures for April 1997, but it seems sure that very soon the headline unemployment figure will soon exceed that which existed when Labour took power.

One economist predicted that unemployment would reach 2 million by the end of the year. I'll make another prediction. Next month the rate will rise by more than 100,000. That is one prediction I hope very much will be wrong.

Home Office caught out over immigration statistics

Good spot from three line whip

Well, well: the statistical chickens are coming home to roost for a government that has long played fast and loose with official figures.

The Home Office apologised for interfering with immigration figures

The Home Office has been forced to say sorry for seeking to interfere in the way immigration figures were released recently.

It seems old habits die hard. In order to inject some credibility into official figures, the Government agreed that they should all be issued by a new arm's length body under the auspices of the new UK Statistics Authority.

But when immigration figures were published last week, the Home Office sent an official along to the Office for National Statistics briefing to hand out a press release that gave a distinctly unbalanced take on the subject.

The Home Office decided that the subject of greatest importance was a decline in the number of eastern Europeans coming to the UK, a line that was apparently followed up by at least one national newspaper.

Now, Prof David Hand, the head of the Royal Statistical Society, has complained that this "succeeded in partially diverting some journalists' attention away from the comprehensive range of data being presented towards one specific issue".

In truth, it should not have had this effect because any journalist following immigration and crime figures over the years have known to take any Home Office press notice with a pinch of salt.

They are always selective with their use of the statistics in order to cast the government in a positive light. That is why public faith in official figures has plummeted over the years.

As Prof Hand says in a letter to Sir Michal Scholar, head of the UK Statistics Authority: "The whole incident epitomises some of the bad practices that have helped to undermine public confidence in official statistics.... At worst this can help to 'bury' news perceived as unfavourable to the Government."

When you think of the vast sums of our money spent by the Government we at least have a basic right to know, without any statistical jiggery pokery, what we are getting for it.

Yet finding the truth, or anything like it, is often impossible because yardsticks are changed, goalposts moved, timescales altered, benchmarks lowered - all to make failure as difficult to discern as possible.

On the positive side, however, we appear to be seeing that rare creature: a state regulator with teeth. Previously, there was a Statistics Commission that was meant to keep an eye on all this but it was powerless to stop the abuse.

The head of the new statutory authority, Sir Michael Scholar, is a former permanent secretary at the Department of Trade and Industry. In an interview with this newspaper, he likened the creation of the authority to Gordon Brown's decision to give independence to the Bank of England in 1997. "Good statistics are as important as sound money or clean water," he said.

Maybe the Home Office and other departments have now got the message.

The Polls are horrendous for Labour

Today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times was taken between 10th and 12th September. As well as a strong Tory lead, the poll also shows the Liberal Democrats down 2 points as the party's conference kicks off.

"The YouGov survey for The Sunday Times puts the Conservatives up one, on 46%, and Labour up two, on 27%...

"The Liberal Democrats, gathering in Bournemouth for their annual conference, are down two points on 16%.

"Some 73% of voters felt Mr Brown was doing a bad job as prime minister, compared with 20% who thought he was doing well.

"That gave him a net negative rating of 53%, while Tory leader David Cameron had a net positive rating of 27%."

Happy days for the Tories, very depressing for Labour. We shall have to see if the conference season does actually change anything.

Is Mugger Mugabe Muted

Or has he kept his grip on power. From the gossip that has come out of the negotiations it seems he will maintain his presidential position, control of the army and the cabinet. Tsvangari gets to be Prime Minister, controls the Police and has a panel to revue policy. It seems to me that if that proves correct then Mugabe will be happy. He can let Morgan get on with sorting the economy and getting the 1 and half billion dollars of international aid flowing, safe in the knowledge that as President he cannot be charged with war crimes. Furthermore he can be a pest and stop Morgan fully implementing his plans if he does not like them.

We shall see on Monday when the deal is announced.

I fear Mugabe is not done yet.

Time For A Leadership Election says the Times

I agree. Read here for their take on it.

Political Betting agrees with the analysis.

Brown has had it anyway but calling their bluff and winning would delay the inevitable for him.

Dominic Grieve draws the line

And he is right. Today the Times spots that the government has "quietly sanctioned the powers for sharia judges to rule on cases ranging from divorce and financial disputes to those involving domestic violence".

Apparently rulings issued by a network of five sharia courts are enforceable with the full power of the judicial system, through the county courts or High Court. The decision has been welcomed by Inayat Bunglawala from the Muslim Council of Britain.

Sheikh Faiz-ul-Aqtab Siddiqi, whose Muslim Arbitration Tribunal runs the courts, said he had taken advantage of a clause in the Arbitration Act 1996.

Under the act, the sharia courts are classified as arbitration tribunals. The rulings of arbitration tribunals are binding in law, provided that both parties in the dispute agree to give it the power to rule on their case.

Siddiqi said: “We realised that under the Arbitration Act we can make rulings which can be enforced by county and high courts. The act allows disputes to be resolved using alternatives like tribunals. This method is called alternative dispute resolution, which for Muslims is what the sharia courts are.”

Jewish Beth Din courts operate under the same provision in the Arbitration Act and resolve civil cases, ranging from divorce to business disputes. They have existed in Britain for more than 100 years, and previously operated under a precursor to the act.

Dominic Grieve, the shadow home secretary, said: “If it is true that these tribunals are passing binding decisions in the areas of family and criminal law, I would like to know which courts are enforcing them because I would consider such action unlawful. British law is absolute and must remain so.”

Douglas Murray, the director of the Centre for Social Cohesion, said: “I think it’s appalling. I don’t think arbitration that is done by sharia should ever be endorsed or enforced by the British state.”

All a bit tricky really. The Beth Din is allowed to operate so why not the Sharia courts. Its because of fear, fear of the future. If the British Rule of law is not enforced now then it has had it. In the future the Muslim population is going to be very large. Fine its part of the changei Britain and the world. However we cannot have a parallel legal system. it won't work and could cause all sorts of social problems.

Therefore I agree with Dominic Grieve. The line must be drawn now. If that means amending legislation then do it even if it affects the Beth Din and Sharia Courts.

Party Conferences - What Fun

1) Do the Lib Dems really need a 5 day conference even if they do discuss policy - no.

2) Are the Lib Dems annoyed that the Labour night of the long knives on Brown has stolen the headlines - Yes they don't get much coverage and this is their chance.

3) Will the Conservatives blow our minds at their conference in Brum - No they will be desperate to avoid a mistake and loving the new found attention of the lobby industry who have massively stepped up their interest in the Tories. Champagne all round.

4) Labour Conference - For the delegates it will be misery as they watch their party at first hand attempt to decapitate itself. For the media it will be a frenzy.

5) Will we be any more informed as the general publc afterwards - No.

6) Will the Politicos have had a good time and enjoyed the freebies - Ohh yes.

This can't last Jonah!

Poor Prime Mentalist, as Guido Fawkes would say. I do think I am beginning to feel sorry for him which is disgraceful. Its just that I can see this being a protracted and painful end. This man will cling on to the post he has striven for his entire life and just not been up to it when he got there. That in itself must hurt but the bad luck and bitter way this is ending must hurt even more.

It just can't go on though. Labour need to back him or sack him. If they choose the latter then they need to start thinking about who can succeed him. I think thats where the problems start. The idea that Brown has failed is not the issue, its agreed. The issue is what to to about it.

The Country at large, the media and the Labour Party itself are going to tire of this mess. While the issue of leadership festers it leaves the Conservatives completely off the hook. The media and the PLP are not challenging them at all and there are a few areas where they could.

Get Carter - Carter Got

"Stephen Carter being moved down the pecking order inside the Number 10 bunker - from chief strategist to not so chief strategist? - is a sign that more blood will flow, and soon, in the Number 10 bunker." - So says the Times. Well Carter is on the way out but its not a bad thing is it? Just what understanding did he possess of big time politics. Answer = None.

So no wonder the Brown loyalists want him gone,m but its not infighting its just they think he is crap and not up to it at a time when they really need quality. Does it mean further blood on the floor will follow as a consequence? No, there will be more blood on the carpet in 10 Downing Street because the Labour Party is in decline. The two things are not the same.

Brown V Darling

There has been talk today that Brown may have to ditch Darling after the "terrible" interview Darling gave to the Guardian. Further, Downing Street are "fuming" and the attack dogs are straining at the leash.

Well what rubbish. Brown and Darling go way back. They are friends and their families get on well. So I just can't see it at all. I can see that Brown may be a bit miffed and will have asked Darling what he was on about. Also I can imagine Darling thinking that perhaps he could have phrased it all a bit differently and not been so relaxed as he was in his holiday home. Certainly Darling looks knackered despite his holiday.

The BBC interview in which Darling can be seen to be flustered about it all is here: Brian Taylor's interview. But having a trembling lip and being flustered is a long way from being sacked folowing a major fallout with Brown. They are friends. They have a slightly different view on what line to take on the economy. But both understand how tricky it is going to be.

Finally if Darling is ditched in yet another suicidal move by Brown thenwho will replace Darling?