Marginal Murder

The News of the World has conducted one of its marginal seat polls, in 192 Labour-held constituencies – details here. Taken Wednesday through Friday, it indicates Cameron is on course for a 78-seat majority with a 15-point lead. As is normal when a party is ahead by such a margin, the Tories are credited with better policies across the board. The Tory vote is slightly harder in the marginals – 62 percent say they’re certain to vote, v 56 percent for Labour supporters.

The poll would have the following effecton cabinet attendees. Anyone with less than a ten percent majority is in trouble.

Rank, Swing, Incumbent, 2nd, Constituency
1, 3.37%, Jacqui Smith, Con, Redditch
2, 4.66%, Tony McNulty, Con, Harrow East
3, 6.52%, Margaret Beckett, LD, Derby South
4, 7.02%, Jim Murphy, Con, Renfrewshire East
5, 8.25%, Alistair Darling, Con, Edinburgh South West
6, 8.27%, John Hutton, Con, Barrow & Furness
7, 9.58%, Jack Straw, Con, Blackburn
8, 9.59%, Liam Byrne, LD, Birmingham Hodge Hill
9, 10.76%, John Denham, Con, Southampton Itchen
10, 11.82%, James Purnell, Con, Stalybridge & Hyde
11, 11.94%, Nick Brown, LD, Newcastle East & Wallsend
12, 12.15%, Geoff Hoon, Con, Ashfield
13, 13.12%, Shaun Woodward, LD, St Helens South
14, 13.37%, Ed Balls, Con, Normanton
15, 16.99%, Alan Johnson, LD, Hull West & Hessle
16, 17.48%, Douglas Alexander, LD, Paisley & Renfrewshire South
17, 17.58%, Hazel Blears, LD, Salford
18, 20.04%, Ed Miliband, Con, Doncaster North
19, 20.33%, Hilary Benn, LD, Leeds Central
20, 20.38%, David Miliband, LD, South Shields
21, 20.56%, Paul Murphy, Con, Torfaen
22, 21.79%, Gordon Brown, SNP, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
23, 23.14%, Yvette Cooper , Con, Pontefract & Castleford
24, 23.26%, Harriet Harman, LD, Camberwell & Peckham
25, 23.67%, Andy Burnham, Con, Leigh