The Lib Dem Problem explained

Just seen this as one of around 250 posts on Political Betting blog and I agree entirely.

Morning All.

In reponse to upthread comments heres what the LD’s should do and why they won’t.

1. Accept that the Government is in terminal decline and can’t be “worked with” after the election.

2. accept that the Conservative brand decontamination is now in terminal ascent.

3. Ergo use every scrap of the national air war to pumel Labour and ignore the tories.

4. accept that they are just trying to hang onto what they have got in ex tory seats. by using incumbancy and anti labour rhetoric in these seats they need to reassure small c conservative voters that they don’t need to vote tory to get an anti labour MP they already have one.

5. try and find a replacement USP after Iraq with the liberal/lefties. I think in many labour seats it should be inequality and just go on and on and on about it.

6. accept over all that this is now the scramble for africa and that anything that isn’t nailed down needs shifting into labour held seats.

Why won’t this happen?

1. the party is run by people like mark senior.

2. too much of the party’s industrial mass is the next “most winable” 50 tory seats that are now out of reach till the second/third terms of a cameron government.

3. the entire calamity cleggover project is about protecting southern marginals. Its why the Mp’s went for someone that looks like him.

4. the long term effect of a hyper localist approach to politics is it destroys your capacity for strategic. The pot hole/focus culture means no one is thinking about the chess move 20 moves ahead.

'Support Our Armed Forces'

See here for more

Below are the patrons and founders of the UKNDAand they ask you to "support our armed forces". We should do just that.



Admiral The Lord BOYCE GCB OBE DL
Rt.Hon Sir Menzies Campbell CBE QC MP
Marshal of the Royal Air Force The Lord CRAIG GCB OBE MA DSc FRAeS
General The Lord GUTHRIE GCB LVO OBE
The Rt. Hon Lord OWEN CH

10p Tax Rate Rubbish

The BBC reports that the chancellor has ruled out a U-turn on axing the 10p tax rate, saying it would be "totally irresponsible" to "unravel...or rewrite" the Budget now.

Really Chancellor. Is that not just a pathetic way of saying that perhaps we got it wrong but it would be politically embarassing to change it now and so you'll have to wait a year or so and then we shall come up with an incredibly complicated redistributive scheme instead of leaving the money in the pockets of those who really need it.

What is the point of the Labour Government if all they do is hammer the poor with taxes. Perhaps they are just creating an ever larger client state in a strange and cruel bid to maintain power. Party of the poor, well yes, they love creating more poor people.

I just don't understand how Gordon Brown can introduce the rate a few years ago to help the poor and now take it away and say it will have no effect.

This Government sucks.

Kenya police tear-gas banned Mungiki sect

Police in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, have fired tear gas at women belonging to the outlawed Mungiki sect.

They had been trying to deliver a petition to new Prime Minister Raila Odinga about their grievances.

The Mungiki called off a week of deadly protests on Thursday after Mr Odinga appealed for dialogue as he was sworn in to head a coalition cabinet.

I hope they sort this out because this combined with virtual civil war in Western Kenya is very worrying indeed. Kenya is surrounded by failed states such as Somalia and is a bulwark against instability spreading. Come on Kenya keep it together otherwise Uganda and Tanzania could be in trouble too and that would leave East Africa finished.

Blacklist of MPs in terror bill rebellion

Click Here for the Blacklist

A SECRET blacklist of Labour MPs suspected of plotting to defeat Gordon Brown’s flagship terror reforms has been drawn up by the party’s whips. The rebel group redoubles the threat to Brown, who is already facing a revolt over his scrapping of the 10p tax rate for the low-paid.

The nine-page dossier, compiled earlier this year and seen by The Sunday Times, reveals bitter differences within Labour over plans to detain suspected terrorists for up to 42 days without trial. It shows that Labour’s whips fear at least 50 of the party’s MPs - including 10 former ministers - will vote against the government. A further 44 are undecided.

Equality chief warns of race ‘cold war’

Interesting article in the Sunday Times. Trevor Phillips has been consistant in his attack on multi culturalism and the lack of political thought. I agree with many of his points and certainly think that the Government has absolutely no idea of peoples feelings on the issue:-

THE head of Britain’s race relations watchdog says lack of control over immigration has led to a racial “cold war” among rival ethnic communities.

Trevor Phillips, chairman of the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), believes that the failed policy risks inflaming racism among millions of young mothers and working professionals.

In an address to mark the 40th anniversary of Enoch Powell’s infamous “rivers of blood” speech in which Powell warned of apocalyptic social consequences if the rising tide of immigration were not halted, Phillips will say that the predictions have not come true. But he will warn that mass immigration has caused a different form of “war” that is just as worrying.

“Powell predicted ‘hot’ conflict and violence. However, we have seen the emergence of a kind of cold war in some parts of the country, where very separate communities exist side by side . . . with poor communication across racial or religious lines,” Phillips will say.

“In essence, Powell so discredited any talk of planning or control that it gave rise to a migration policy in which government knew too little about what was going on. Ironically, Powellism and the weakening of control it engendered may have led Britain to admitting more immigrants than fewer.”

Phillips will also warn ministers that they are playing into the hands of antiimmigrant parties such as the British National party by failing to respond to justified concerns among large sections of the “settled” population about the impact of mass immigration on their daily lives.

House Prices

If house prices do fall by 10% as has been suggested by the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, amongst many others, then that will constrain spending in the high street (especially as staple goods are increasing in price). It is the effect that this has on the economy as a whole that is crucial. If the economy does slow or worse, then Gordon Brown will be in real trouble. He is way too closely associated with the Treasury (obviously) and so cannot escape the criticism, especially as he was the man who had ended "boom and bust". That phrase in itself showed a lack of understanding of the economic cycle. More detail in the Sunday Times.

Personally I dont mind a hosue price decline. It may just let me get on the property ladder!

Boris returns with an excellent second video

Kenya Power Sharing

Come on Kenya get it together. 600,000 people displaced and hundreds dead as a result of the election. Hopefully they can keep this coalition together long enough to have another election in a year or two. If not then they are buggered.

The one downside is that there will be no attempt to stop the corruption which is now reaching epic proportions. Still peace and relative stability is better than any alternative.

See the BBC for more on the coalition.

Politics Home

The new website rules.

It is interesting to see just how professional the "new media" are getting and the sheer number of new blogs is incredible.

Zimbabwe

What will this man do






Click here for the latest from the BBC

The Polls

The Conservatives are now 16% ahead. They were 14% ahead two weeks ago.

Today’s YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts David Cameron’s Tories on 44% - the party’s highest level of support since 1992. They lead by 16 points over Labour on 28%, while the Liberal Democrats are on 17%. Only 11% now believe that Labour will win a clear victory in the next general election.

Brown’s poll rating has fallen to minus 37, down from plus 48 last August. The collapse is the most dramatic of any modern-day prime minister, worse even than Neville Chamberlain who in 1940 dropped from plus 21 to minus 27 after Hitler’s invasion of Norway.

I suspect more stories like this will continue to emerge if the polls continue to look like Labour seats will be lost by the bucket load.

The British Army

There is a great comment peice in the Independent today about the military by Bruce Anderson. I agree with every point. I know. Incredible given it is the Indy.

Among other things he is right to say the Harry in Afghanistan has raised moral in the Army and make the nation proud. I think that is true (certainly made John Snow look bad). He also alludes to the fact that the Labour Government has asked the military to do everything and given them nothing to do it with. If anything the military have suffered even more due to their ability to get on a do a job in any circumstances.

Anyway best to read the article.

Archbishop Williams and lunacy

What was the man thinking. He is said to be "upset" and clearly had no idea of the impact he could have when giving this speech. I tend to agree with comments from some in and around the synod who say that he is best locked away in a university where he thoughts and musings can be kicked around and discussed without it being front page news.

He is head of the church. His words are listened to especially on such a controversial issue.

In any event the answer from the Gov, the Tories, the media, infact everyone, has been unequivecal- NO you are wrong on this.

Religious conscience should not have a place in state law. It is a recipe for disaster. Go and read the God Delusion and see what madness this all is.

Anyway I would not stop anyone wanting to adhere to a faith but that should not affect the rule of law or even be given particular consideration when contact between the two takes place.

Dr Williams may be clever, but the speech (and timing) was dumb. He should get on with representing and promoting the Church of which he is head or go and be a scholar.

George Osborne

If he wants to send his kids to private school then fine. What is everyones problem? It's his money and his choice and it is doubtless the best option for his kids.

The UK independent sector as a whole educates 620,000 children in around 2,500 independent schools. This represents just under 7% of the total number of schoolchildren in the UK (and just over 7% of the total number of schoolchildren in England). It also represents 23% of sixth form pupils
and the number is growing rapidly. This is hardly a surprise given the condition of state education in some areas of the country. The private school exhibition in london this year was the most vistied ever.

It was not wealthy parents but people from all over who had had enough of state education and were wiling to sacrifice a great deal to get their kids what they perceived as a better education.

So Osborne is by no means alone.

Channel 4 political awards

The Countryside Alliance won an award and got booed. Disgraceful.

Baroness Anelay won an award and thoroughly deserved it. She is a brilliant operator in the Lords, who always prepares in detail and who plays the cards right in all Lords debates. Definitely one of the best in shadow Home Affairs team.

Peter Hain and donorgate

Hain is symptomatic of the New Labour disease. There are too many ongoing investigations into dodgy donors and too many past mistakes right from the beginning. Despite their own new piece of legislation designed to be "whiter than white" they have managed to mess it all up.

Now it appear as though they hold the law in contempt. Certainly Hain has shown he beleives politicians should be treated differently from the "plebs".

Donorgate will continue and will haunt them. It should. Hoist by their own pertard.

Maybe Polly Toynbee can be like us!

Polly is not happy with Gordon Brown after yet another poor week for the PM. He was supposed to be in the middle of a new year relaunch. Anyway this is the best bit from polly, for more see here. (I still don't like her!)

"These are the images that the ghost of the election yet to come would summon up for Ebeneezer Scrooge Brown. Is it too late, Brown might ask the ghost. No, of course not. It's never too late for redemption - or "change" as Brown calls it without changing anything. For despite all this, the Tories are still only a few points ahead, nowhere near where they should be. That's some comfort, but frankly it's hard to believe enough people would turn out to vote for four more years of this. A pusillanimous cabinet bungles its safety-first policies, failing to appease unappeasable enemies while losing most of its friends. But imagine if Labour now reversed all this week's cornucopia of bad decisions. Look into the future - and avoid it."

If the PM and No.1 bunker can keep annoying their friends in the media like the above demonstrates they have, then they really will be in trouble.

Ken V Boris

The latest polling shows that while Boris is close to Ken he is not closing as quickly as you would expect.

Ken has been in big trouble over all sorts of scandals in the last few weeks and yet this has had no impact in the latest polling. Weird isn't it.

Still Boris is raising a lot of money and has also had a haircut, but I have not seen it!

The Future

It seems to me as though the sheer volume of political events will enable Brown to win the next election.

He has had a terrible few months and the mistakes of the last ten years are enormous.

However if he has a go, via his legislation, of getting on with the job that may well just be enough.

That really does seem incredible to me. The scale of the problems either not solved or further inflamed by labour are vast.

But events keep happening and don't allow us to sit back and take a broad view of it all.
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