Sunday 21 September 2008

The Zim Crisis


Sorting out the mess of Zimbabwe's agricultural sector will be key to breathing life back into the country's economy and to the success of the power-sharing deal signed this week.

Firstly, there is to be an audit of the land to eliminate "multiple farm ownerships".

This has long been a call by the former opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which feels that much of the 11m hectares of prime farmland taken from 4,000 mainly white farmers has been given to ruling party loyalists.

The security of tenure the agreement guarantees to land holders, is key to rebooting the sector. Details of the guarantee are yet to be decided, but it is likely that land, now considered state property, will be allocated on 99-year leases.

This will allow capital to be raised, which has stunted new farmers, leaving them unable to pay for equipment and seeds. It will also allow some former farmers to come back. There will now be no race colour or creed barrier.

HOWEVER the main probelm will be the fact that the power sharing agreement is in general insane. It will cause schizophrenia. The only choice for those wishing to invest in Zim is to wait for Mugabe to die. There will then be a huge power struggle and only after that can investors make a rational decision.

STILL - At least Mugger Mugabes grip is weakening and at 84 years old, time is not on his side. once gone the military junta that keeps him on his pedastal (maybe forcibly) will have nowhere to hide and will have to put up or shut up.

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