Party Conferences - What Fun

1) Do the Lib Dems really need a 5 day conference even if they do discuss policy - no.

2) Are the Lib Dems annoyed that the Labour night of the long knives on Brown has stolen the headlines - Yes they don't get much coverage and this is their chance.

3) Will the Conservatives blow our minds at their conference in Brum - No they will be desperate to avoid a mistake and loving the new found attention of the lobby industry who have massively stepped up their interest in the Tories. Champagne all round.

4) Labour Conference - For the delegates it will be misery as they watch their party at first hand attempt to decapitate itself. For the media it will be a frenzy.

5) Will we be any more informed as the general publc afterwards - No.

6) Will the Politicos have had a good time and enjoyed the freebies - Ohh yes.

This can't last Jonah!

Poor Prime Mentalist, as Guido Fawkes would say. I do think I am beginning to feel sorry for him which is disgraceful. Its just that I can see this being a protracted and painful end. This man will cling on to the post he has striven for his entire life and just not been up to it when he got there. That in itself must hurt but the bad luck and bitter way this is ending must hurt even more.

It just can't go on though. Labour need to back him or sack him. If they choose the latter then they need to start thinking about who can succeed him. I think thats where the problems start. The idea that Brown has failed is not the issue, its agreed. The issue is what to to about it.

The Country at large, the media and the Labour Party itself are going to tire of this mess. While the issue of leadership festers it leaves the Conservatives completely off the hook. The media and the PLP are not challenging them at all and there are a few areas where they could.

Get Carter - Carter Got

"Stephen Carter being moved down the pecking order inside the Number 10 bunker - from chief strategist to not so chief strategist? - is a sign that more blood will flow, and soon, in the Number 10 bunker." - So says the Times. Well Carter is on the way out but its not a bad thing is it? Just what understanding did he possess of big time politics. Answer = None.

So no wonder the Brown loyalists want him gone,m but its not infighting its just they think he is crap and not up to it at a time when they really need quality. Does it mean further blood on the floor will follow as a consequence? No, there will be more blood on the carpet in 10 Downing Street because the Labour Party is in decline. The two things are not the same.

Brown V Darling

There has been talk today that Brown may have to ditch Darling after the "terrible" interview Darling gave to the Guardian. Further, Downing Street are "fuming" and the attack dogs are straining at the leash.

Well what rubbish. Brown and Darling go way back. They are friends and their families get on well. So I just can't see it at all. I can see that Brown may be a bit miffed and will have asked Darling what he was on about. Also I can imagine Darling thinking that perhaps he could have phrased it all a bit differently and not been so relaxed as he was in his holiday home. Certainly Darling looks knackered despite his holiday.

The BBC interview in which Darling can be seen to be flustered about it all is here: Brian Taylor's interview. But having a trembling lip and being flustered is a long way from being sacked folowing a major fallout with Brown. They are friends. They have a slightly different view on what line to take on the economy. But both understand how tricky it is going to be.

Finally if Darling is ditched in yet another suicidal move by Brown thenwho will replace Darling?

Home Office Proposal - Post Charge questionning

All well and good this idea BUT:

a) The Police have had to improve their questionning to make sure they have enough prior to charge. This proposed change would allow them to get lazy and just ask for a post charge interview. That is not efficient.

b) The whole reason for stooping this practice 24 years ago was to stop abuse and oppressive questionning etc.

c) The most important impact will be this; They legal services commission will have to completely change the fee structure for solicitors attending at Police Stations. At the the moment it is all fixed fee. But if solicitors have to keep coming back for post charge interviews as part of the fixed fee then only one thing will happen. Criminal solicitors cannot take such a loss of income (it is hard enough as it is). Therefore they will simply refuse to attend or tell the client to no comment via phone. This will not be in the interests of justice.

I doubt this has been thought about but it willbe a big problem.

Finally remember that police can re interview post charge at the moment but only if they have a very good reason. (surely that is the best approach).

The Polls - The nightmare continues

ConservativeHome - "The Tories remain well ahead in the latest YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph. CCHQ insist there is no room for complacency and that's one of the reasons there was annoyance at Eric Pickles for his recent suggestion that it was "impossible" for Labour to win the next election."

How many months has the lead been around this mark for now? Must be 5 or 6 at least. Brown is absolutely finished. His personal ratings are still the worst for any primeminister ever and any hope of recovery is going to be scuppered by the economy. The Tories need to maintain a steady course and be the viable alternative. Yes more concrete policies are needed but not yet. (Labour would only nick them and then implement them abysmally).


Plus this is mid term polling and the Tories always do better at election time so we could add on a few more percentage points on to the above.

However the fact that bondary changes will affect the majority of seats next time means calculating possible majorities is virtually impossible and futile because nominal figures are tricky.

Still another 20 point lead spells continued gloom in the Brown Bunker.

Russian Bear

Everyone has come to the view that the Russians have gone nuts and will aggressively defend "their" sphere of influence. Certainly the Georgia intervention was a case of protecting such a thing. Well I understand to an extent their position:

The Russian State has always considered itself as a strong man. It has had to put up with 15 to 20 years of weakness when the West could expand its sphere of influence. Now the Russians are back. They have Oil and Gas and can throw their weight around. They feel the EU and NATO are messing in their backyard and they can't understand why Europe would take that risk. In the Ruskies minds all they have to to is threaten to turn the gas and oil taps off and all hell will break loose in Europe. They are right off course.

So it will all end in stalemate. Europe will bluster but do nothing and Russia will not do anything so overtly aggressive again in the near future. The reason why? Because if Russia did carry our their threat to turn the taps off it would hurt them as well as us. (just look at the recent performance of their stock market - it has dived).

So really all we have learnt recently is that Russia will not be "pushed around" by the West. They are back on the map. If they went further and intervened elsewhere or turned off the taps it would be a massive gamble and I can't see what incentive they would have for doing it.

(Still doesnt help Georgia. A sovereign nation - that situation requires a UN peacekeeping force and gradual transition back to normality and the official forming of semi autonmous regions).

We shall see.

Mugger Mugabe - Exit Now Mate

Shouted at, heckled, booed and chanted at during the state opening of Parliament< Mugabe left annoyed and shocked. He could not believe what had just happened. That showed to me just how hopelessly out if touch he is and what a complete state of denial he was in.

However he refuses to go. He is playing all his cards in the power sharing talks. Every year people predict he will go. Yet he is still there clinging to power as are the military chiefs that keep so close to him.

At 84 maybe it will be infirmity that will get him in the end.

PS. Come on Thabo Umbeki. Keep the pressure up and prove that your queit diplomacy was the best way after all.

Tower Hamlets and Ramadan

Stories about none Muslim Councillors not being able to eat during Council meetings while Ramadan is on are not helpful at all for community cohesion. Tower Hamlets cannot have any idea about the upset this kind of story causes nationwide. It grates with the majority of people and creates negative views.

If not true they should get out there and say so, now. If true they should change policy rapidly.

The pres should also be careful how they report stories like this. They must make sure it is true and report it neutrally.

Darling - “arguably the worst” slump in 60 years

Not a helpful comment for Brown and the Government, but is it true? If you brought a house a couple of years ago then you are not happy now; paying energy bills and putting petrol in the car is painful now; if you were starting to take your pension now then you will be getting about 20% less than a few years ago;the banks have yet to work through the credit crisis fallout; so mortgages and house sales are still low; unemployment is expected to top 2 million by Christmas; the Poles are going home, is that a sign?; the high street claims to be in agony; personal debt is still enormous and the Treasury is skint.

Yes there is a problem but at this stage its not the worst thing to happen in sixty years. The fact he said anything is key. Darling clearly wants to brace us for the future and make sure he is not blamed for it.

It is almost unprecedented for a Chancellor to speak out like this. So the presure is beginning to tell. Brown will also be pissed off that Darling has said the voters are "pissed off" with NuLabour. It just does not help and diverts attention from the economic relaunch plan. That plan seems No.10 driven and may be another reason for Darling speaking out as he and the Treasury are being sidelined in the process.

Tories Hotter Election Favourites Than Ever

So say William Hill and here are the odds:

TORIES HOTTER ELECTION FAVOURITES THAN EVER
The Conservatives are 1/4 favourites - the shortest odds tghey have been sinced losing power eleven years ago -to win the next General Election with William Hill, who make Labour 11/4, the longest odds they have been since coming to power.'There is no sign of a revival in support for Labour to win the next Election under Gordon Brown' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

(they are surely completely right above but I am far less conivnced with the generosity of the odds below relating to David Davis:

WHAT WILL DAVID DAVIS GET UP TO NEXT?
AFTER HIS bloodless victory in the Haltemprice By Election, David Davis is quoted at 7/1 by William Hill to launch his own Political Party in time for the next General Election (must field at least two candidates); 10/1 to stand in a Tory leadership contest against David Cameron before the next General Election; 12/1 to regain his position as Shadow Home Secretary before the next Election; 14/1 to become the next leader of the Tory Party.

There is no way DD is going to stand again in a Tory election so odds of 10 to 1 look rubbish. He is too old and does not want it. Therefore 14/1 also looks hopeless. However 12/1 to become shadow home sec again is a good bet. I reckon he might come back straight into that position. Remember Dominic Grieve QC MP has yet to relinquish his shadow AG title and so could always leave the shadow home sec job leaving the way for DD to return.

The Polls they are a changing

BUT only a bit. Populus has the Tories at a mere 13 point lead. There cannot be any complaints at that. That means the last 20 or so polls have given massive leads to the Tories. Gordon can't be too happy. Perhaps its got to the stage where they just shrug their shoulders and get on with preparing the next disaster of a policy. We shall see how the lan lies in two years time but Labour cannot go on like this, which puts pressure on Brown and Co.

G8 Summit

To me the whole G8 thing seems increasingly out of touch. Many of those there both people and countries represent the past. The rubbish way they handle issues and the media does not help. The photocall at the eight course dinner, which followed a six course lunch, being an example.



Change is everywhere and I am not sure how long the logo here will be accurate for. Does the G8 really have the influence that the logo suggests. I am not so sure now.



Certainly it will be interesting to see how long we are invited for!

Its Oh So Quiet in Haltemprice and Howden

Come on DD make some noise.

He really is having a hard time getting into the media at the moment. I almost feel sorry for him but then I still haven't quite got why he quit in the first place.

Cameron and Catholicism

Well he may not have converted like Tony Blair but he did visit and speak at a Catholic Church in Glasgow East. Cameron was there in order to campaign in the byelection and of course to take a whole lot of the southern press pack to Glasgow East to show them and therefore the country just how badly Labour have messed up over the last 30 years. It is a deprived hellhole Labour created and have done nothing to solve. The former Labour MP should be ashamed of himself. I truly hope he is. 30 years an MP and bugger all change to show for it.

Some have seen the Catholic angle as a bit much. Obviously there is a lot of history in Glasgow between Catholics and Protestants and it still simmers today although in different forms.

Most people in Glasgow East are Catholics and they have always voted Labour over the last century. Well that could just change and I see no problem with the Church visit.

I do see a problem for Labour in Glasgow East. It would be incredible if they lost to the SNP but a week after the prospect of defeat arose, Labour have failed to go on the attack. Infact they have suffered a "lost weekend" while trying to find a candidate. Thank god they have managed to persuade their fourth or fifth choice to stand!

Its being called the broken society by-election by the Tories. Not a bad title unless you live in the constituency. Its not going to win any new votes but then I don't suppose the Tories care. highlighting Labour pain is enough, the SNP can take the glory on this. Not good for the Union though.

On the train to Truro

It occurs to me on this never ending and cramped journey that we really ought to improve public transport. The system sucks.

Surely we could get proper high speed trains that won't cost the earth to go on. I know the government are looking into this idea now. They are probably the umpteenth one to do so but they really should.

Anyway only three more hours to Truro.

Watchdog rejects Treasury accounts

According to the Times:

“..Mr Darling is fighting a bruising battle with the National Audit Office (NAO), which is unhappy at the way that the nationalisation of Northern Rock is being treated in the Treasury’s books. The annual report from No 11 was published yesterday but, in a highly unusual departure from normal procedure, without the department’s resource accounts..A Treasury spokesman confirmed the delay but denied that the spending watchdog had threatened to qualify its accounts. The books must be published before the parliamentary recess in three weeks’ time…”

I know this was from earlier in the week but it is still annoying me. I simply cannot believe that they ahve been unable to be able to sort this out yet, having known of the issues for months. It makes the UK look like the EU with 11 years of unaudited accounts.

This story will not capture the public imagination but it is another dent in the PM's Treasury legacy. Certainly it caps another bad week for Alistair Darling.

The Treasury is under pressure. Too many people have left and their is very low moral all at a time when they are needed to be strong. It may be tricky but they should work this out quickly. I know they will never agree with the NAO as that would result in smashing the "golden rule" on borrowing to bits, but it would be good!

MP's, pay and expenses - A lost chance

I don't think MP's should be in it for the money and think their pay combined with the pension is not too far off where it should be. Expenses, well that has to change. The system must be more transparent and the blatant abuse by some will surface soon and they will regret the £2000 TV from John Lewis purchase as well they should.

However if I was one of them I may have made the following calculation:

People can't stand us as it is and so sod them, we can't get lower in their estimation so we may as well get all we can. Ergo I would have voted for the maximum pay rise and then looked to vote for an expenses system that gave me the most. They did not and have still ended up looking stupid. No one will give them credit for limiting the pay rise and everyone will ridicule them for keeping the current abusive expense system.

What should happen is that they don't vote on their pay at all. Someone else should tell them how much they will get. Expenses should be very very transparent and all MP's should note the following:

a) Their are thousands of wannabe MP's and so in terms of supply and demand economics they are lucky to get paid at all.

b) They are not special. Most people could do their job. It requires no qualifications and the only real difficulty, especially for a back bencher is i) the long hours of "work" and "gossip" and ii) having to deal with those pesky constituents by getting your secretary or caseworker to deal with them.

c) They are meant to serve the public not themselves.

Now obviously there are a great many brilliant and hard working MP's. Equally there are many who are just plain rubbish. Infact the low quality of many is surprising given the competition to get in.

Ed Balls

Is a moron. I can't stand the man and his comments on education this week and the need NOT to inform parents and kids of SATs exam dates show a breathtaking lack of connection with parents in the country. It was his answer to reducing the stress around exams, "just don't tell them". Not only is that impractical as the word would get out, it also shows dismissive arrogance. What a plonker.

The news that the outsourced marking system has gone to pot seems to have surprised Mr Balls. I don't see why as many a news network anticipated this disaster weeks ago. Why did Mr Balls and his Department miss it. Anyway he has announced a review into why children and parents will have to wait weeks longer than anticipated for results (ie hope the news cycle moves on). This disaster also plays havoc for schools who can't know what kid should go where until the results are back and hence can't plan.

This all comes on top of his recent attacks on faith schools and grammar schools. The man is nuts. He will not stop until he has lowered the education system to the lowest common denominator and will then claim victory.

Glasgow East - Gordon and his destiny

In the unlikely event that the Labour Party lose this by election it has got to be curtains for Brown. That in turn would be bad news for the Tory Party. The PM needs to stick it out and lead Labour to landslide defeat in two years time. The Tories don't want a new Labour leader who may have a vague understanding of whats going on on the ground, something which Brown does not get.

However a lot of commentors and punters seem very optimistic about a defeat for Labour despite them having achieved 61% of the vote last time. Glasgow East is Labour Land, overturning a 13,000+ majority will be near impossible even though Labour is Leaderless in Scotland and tanking in the polls.

Yet the bookies have the SNP as odds on favourite to win and the Westminster Village seem to think its a genuine possibility. Its all incredible really.

I understand that Labour has this afternoon picked a candidate to stand which clears up one mess for them after their preferred man pulled out last night. However this MSP will not have long to stamp authority on the campaign or time to adjust to the oncoming media onslaught.

We shall see who wins on 24 July. Whoever does so will have a hell of a difficult time in improving the lives of those that live in what is statistically not the best place to live. It appears to be a huge social housing programme gone disastrously wrong adn no one has adressed it for 30 years.