Wellington boots

It is only an hour into the Tory conference and Theresa May has mentioned wellies already.

Although it is in a good cause as they are now showing a video of Tory grandees mucking in on various social action projects. I wonder how the one near to conference is going? I am sure they will tell us on the last day.

Lots of references being made to social action and the third sector. Social action is good, it should be part of everyday life, that is what society is about. However I am not yet convinced that the third sector can be the answer to areas where the government has failed. I just don't think the third sector is up to it. the itroduction would have to be very gradual.

Brown on Burma

He has rightly said we should not tolerate this behaviour. Yet his government has done nothing for 10 years. To be fair few governments around the world have done anything either. However now there is a growing sense of outrage can anything in fact be done?


I think there is only one player on the stage here and that is China. They are the key player and just how democratic are they and what is their human rights record like? However they are still best placed to intervene, although India could help too as it also has some influence.


Finally our own record in Burma is not the best. We never cared too much about it other than as a place that could upset the Raj. The wikipedia page on Burma is very good.

Tories Conference hit by deafening silence

What an amusing start. The sound technicians are running around in a fury. The system has broken and they have had to take a 5 minute break to try and get it working.

On top of that there are still some people who cannot get their conference passes. Which feels rather familiar as I could not get mine last year either. I can't tell you how many annoyed people swore they would never come back. Wonder if they did and had to queue again!

Not a good start then, but being taken with good humour, as least so far. Can't imagine this will be amusing if the system is still not working in 30 minutes with a packed hall of people getting moody.

UPDATE: 11:50am- All is working well now and Hague is in full flow.

Hezza in the Telegraph- The best bit

"Finally, he should also unleash the dogs of war on the record of Gordon Brown and his Government. Educational standards are a scandal. Housing conditions for too many people are sub-standard and a growing number cannot get on the housing ladder in the first place. At the same time he should not allow himself to be seduced by the press to publish all of his policies in haste. Those that are good, as we have seen in recent months, will simply be stolen by Gordon Brown. David Cameron has been perhaps a little too nice; he should now turn his fire on Labour's record of failure over the past 10 years."

He is right, there is a stack of stuff to attack Brown on. DC should and will go for it.

David Cameron's chat with Andrew Marr

I though the interview went well.

DC spoke eloquently and seemed very excited about the prospect of an election being called. He came across as genuinely wanting an election and wanting to have a go at Brown's ten year record.

He spoke well about tax issues and was fully informed even able to correct Marr on the cost of an Airlie tax. (Marr said a billion and was told "no it will be 400 million"). DC said Green taxes will pay for family credits which links in well with the IDS point that the family is the bedrock of Britiain and needs to be helped as it is in the rest of Europe. DC also spoke about Thatcher, marriage, properly funded tax cuts and even immigration.

On the last topic he did well, he should not focus on it but should of course answer the question when asked. Immigration being an issue that people already know the tories have a more effective strategy than Labour who have not planned for the massive arrival of people.

All in all it was a good start.

Incidentally even George Osbourne did well when interviewed by Adam Boulton on Sky News. He was patient when interrupted and kew his stuff.

Play Taxman Pacman!

I did and well I was top of the score board on Tax Man Gordon Pacman game at 9pm today.

See for yourself it is an addictive game.

http://www.taxmangordon.com/

Cameron arrives at conference

The fightback begins


At least I hope so!

Bill of Rights

Why is it that over the course of the last year the three main parties have all decided that a Bill of Rights in one form or another is needed. The Conservatives have a panel of jurists which will report to the Shadow AG Dominic Grieve at some point this year. You know therefore that this will be a serious effort. Tories are committed to scrapping the HRA and replacing it with a Bill of Rights which will be more at home in our legal system. It may also contain some responsibilities and other features such as fixed election dates.

The Labour party and Brown in particular has mentioned a Bill of Rights yet I am not sure of its contents at all. He seems to recognise that the Tory proposal is more than just an attack on the HRA (which is what Falconer thought it was). It involves the whole "Britishness element" too. But Brown surely can't on the one hand be associated with the HRA and then feel the need for a Bill of Rights too.

As for the Liberals they too have mentioned having one during their recent conference and connected to te environment in particular. Apart from that I don't know much on their proposals.

But why have they all decided to have one. Does the Chahal judgment have that much significance to Labour and the Tories (I think it does- it certainly has annoyed every Sec of State of the Home Office since Howard- John Reid recently got very angry when talking about it). Are Labour that unsure of their own HRA or that worried about the cohesiveness of the union. For the Tories is it a middle way between ECHR and HRA.

What is certain to me is that this seemingly insignificant issue will actually become increasingly important over the next year or two. Why- well it has everything in its mix. Britishness, community cohesion, deportation, HRA, ECHR, constitutional issues etc etc.

David Davis should do more fringe events at Conference

I only say this as Home Affirs is an interesting area and DD has some good ideas on it.

Trust Fund Toffs- The Tory Elite

Is it really true that Cameron's inner circle are overly privileged toffs.

• Well you cannot be blamed for being born into a family with a bit of money. Can you?


• Nor can it be your fault if your parents send you to a top public school. Can it?


• If you work hard and get to Oxbridge and flourish that can only be good. Surely?


• Doing well in CCHQ as a CRD bod is a sign of determination. Must be?


• Working in communications in the corporate world, doing well and becoming an MP and then Tory Leader are signs of outstanding success. Has to be?

Well it is not the last point that just seems to slightly grate with people, it is the first two really. The ones where DC obviosly had no say in the matter.

But that combined with his "inner circle" being perceived as of the same stock does stick at the back of people's minds. White van man thinks maybe "they are different, out of touch" etc.

It is unfair on DC but I think he must be wary of Labour jibes on the point as their does seem to be a slight resonance with people, you know, thoughts like "bugger off Goldsmith, stop lecturing us on the environment, you can afford it, we can't".

Conservative Home readers causing trouble

The results from "grassroots members" if adopted by DC as the main attack points would result in a loss in any election. Yes these issues are important but must be part of a package and not overly focussed on.

See below from Con Home:

Grassroots members support return to traditional Tory policies in Blackpool

A ConservativeHome.com survey of grassroots members provides plenty of advice for the Tory leadership as the party gathers in Blackpool:

• Grassroots members would like to see a manifesto that reduces taxation, increases prison places, increases funding for the armed forces, scraps ID cards and delivers English votes for English laws.


• Members disagree with Tory promises to match Labour's spending promises. By more than two-to-one they would like less spending and more of the 'proceeds of growth' to be shared between lower taxation and lower borrowing.


• 55% of members would like to see a bigger emphasis on immigration within Tory campaigning. The same proportion fear that the party's policy position on higher green taxation is a voter loser.

The above are just same old same old. There is more to life for most people than immigration, tax and law and order.

DC will not focus on the above at conference but he will talk about them which should at least keep the "grassroots" happy.

The Polls

As Tories head to Blackpool, Brown has a landslide lead

James Forsyth 12:05pm

Today’s polls are grim for the Tories. Labour lead by double digits in both and with a uniform national swing would have a majority well into three figures. Gordon Brown is also well ahead of David Cameron on the key personal measures. According to YouGov, Cameron has a net negative rating of 41 on being in touch with the concerns of people like you while Brown scores a plus 10 rating on this question. Populus has Brown leading 60 to 45% on the issue of caring about the problems that ordinary people face. While 50% think that Brown has answers to the key issues facing the country compared to only 30% for Cameron. YouGov also finds that 57% see Cameron as a lightweight compared to Brown and 56% think he is too like Blair. 64% of voters have little idea of what a Conservative government would be like. (Although, this numbers should fall with the planned policy blitz in Blackpool.)
There is one number in the polls, though, that should give the Tories cheer. YouGov reports that 58% of voters think that if Brown calls an election this year he will be doing so because “he believes Labour would win an early election but might lose the next election if he put it off until later.”

This all means nothing unless the polls are the same late next week. Then we would be in trouble.

Election Fever

This is Nick Robinson's overview of the Will he or won't he? question:

Here are the two likely scenarios and the reasons for them;

1. Election called next week:

• Labour has a good week, banks don't crash, animal diseases don't spread.
• Brown overshadows the start of the Tory party conference with a fever pitch of 'will he or won't he' speculation, before announcing on October 2nd that the country will vote on the 25th.
• His rationale is that the polls may never be better, David Cameron may never be weaker, the Tories will be denied the time they crave to spend millions in marginal seats. And Brown can say that the opposition parties, the polls and parts of the media demanded that he get his own mandate.

2. Election not called next week:

• Brown decides that he doesn't wish to risk becoming a Trivial Pursuit question - "Who was the shortest serving prime minister who did not die in office?" Answer - Gordon Brown with just 120 days in office (if he lost an election on October 25th). George Canning served only 119 having taken office in 1827, caught pneumonia and died.
•Ever the strategic player, Brown wants his spending review, Iraq troop announcement and health review in place before going to the polls and he fears that the polls might not survive the dark nights, a tricky EU summit on October 18th and more financial uncertainty.
• Brown still overshadows start of the Tory conference with a fever pitch of "will he or won't he" speculation, thus damaging his rivals best opportunity for a re-launch.
• When no election is called the Labour party points out that Brown always said that he was "getting on with the job" and that his "focus is on the work ahead". They point also to the following comments last week by Alastair Darling on GMTV: "I think people know there is a new Government, they have got a new prime minister, but they want the Government to get on with the job we were elected to do. I do not get any sense that people inside Government or outside Government are anxious for a dash to the polls."
• Labour encourages people to write that Brown could have won but decided not to go to the polls in the national interest.

Nick concludes that it is one "helluva" decision. I agree. It is tough and perhaps the events set for net weeks conference can help.

I reckon if the situation is this fevered and favourable by next Monday, Gordon may just go for it.

The latest poll from Populus.

The Labour lead is down to one point say Populus. This backs up the private polling done for the Tories and I am believe it.

People are willing to look for an alternative government. The Tories have got to shape up and be that alternative.

The Lions of Basra

So says the Sun and we all surely agree the military are being asked to do too much with too little.

They deserve better.

They are underfunded, undermanned and poorly equipped.

They need a Conservative government.

Michael Ancram

The man has not been helpful.

He has written in the Telegraph asking the Tories to recapture their "soul". He also published a pamphlet entitled "still a conservative".

He has a point, that it is time to move on from rebranding and also that we must bear in mind our broad beleifs.

But a) we are moving on, the policy reviews as he himself states, are drawing to a close and we can go on the attack showing ourselves as the alternative. B) he should not have gone public. It means a day of bad media headlines on one hand set against yet more of Brown on TV.

It just does not help one bit, except for him as we all now know of his pamphlet.

The Tory Transport Issue

This week we have seen a lot of commentators complain about the possibility of the Tories adopting a policy of no airport expansion. Cameron effectivel dismissed the option on Newsnight last thursday.

I think Goldsmith and Gummer should go for the idea and recommend it as a policy. They will not now I suspect.

Personally I do not want more and more plane noise in the skies of the south east. I do not think the benefits of huge airports are all they are cracked up to be.

Yes we need airports that business find easy to use and commute from. London's financial centre must be cared for. We also should have a pleasant experience when going on holiday. Nothing controversial there.

However we do not need to further develop the UK as the centre of a hub and spoke system for major carriers. Why do we do this. The revenue gained is not vast, the jobs created by it are not inspiring and a large chunk filled by EU migrant labour. The environmental and nosie pollution outweighs any other benefit.

Getting rid of the hub and spoke system would create a bit of space in busy landing slots. Once that is done we should indeed scrap most internal flights. This would free up yet more landing slots and prevent the need for expansion. It would also force everyone to upgrade our other transport infrastructure that is not now good enough.

Having the UK as a global aviation hub is just nuts and not related to it being a global financial centre.

Go for it Gummer.

Conservative Party's Private Poll

Under the British Polling Council’s disclosure rules Populus have released the full table for the Conservative party’s private polling that was mentioned in the Telegraph this morning. The topline results, with changes from the last Populus poll, are CON 36% (+3), LAB 37% (-2), LDEM 16% (+1). It was carried out between the 25th and 28th August.

Does not look that bad at all. I do think that it is nearer the truth. People have been reasonably happy with Gordon Brown and so have given him the benefit of the doubt. Deep down everyone knows he is the other half of a team that has run government for years and so he is accountable for the problems that have arisen on his watch just as much as Blair was (and is).

News Extra- Diana is dead

Can we move on from this please. It has been ten years.

Boris has the left worried.

Yep I think its true. But Boris will have to stop playing the fool.

Election fever

Everyone seems to think labour are planning something for next week.



Surely not an election announcement. You cannot tell anything from the polls yet and so why take the risk.



I doubt it will be anything exciting but keeps the politicos interested.