This is Nick Robinson's overview of the Will he or won't he? question:
Here are the two likely scenarios and the reasons for them;
1. Election called next week:
• Labour has a good week, banks don't crash, animal diseases don't spread.
• Brown overshadows the start of the Tory party conference with a fever pitch of 'will he or won't he' speculation, before announcing on October 2nd that the country will vote on the 25th.
• His rationale is that the polls may never be better, David Cameron may never be weaker, the Tories will be denied the time they crave to spend millions in marginal seats. And Brown can say that the opposition parties, the polls and parts of the media demanded that he get his own mandate.
2. Election not called next week:
• Brown decides that he doesn't wish to risk becoming a Trivial Pursuit question - "Who was the shortest serving prime minister who did not die in office?" Answer - Gordon Brown with just 120 days in office (if he lost an election on October 25th). George Canning served only 119 having taken office in 1827, caught pneumonia and died.
•Ever the strategic player, Brown wants his spending review, Iraq troop announcement and health review in place before going to the polls and he fears that the polls might not survive the dark nights, a tricky EU summit on October 18th and more financial uncertainty.
• Brown still overshadows start of the Tory conference with a fever pitch of "will he or won't he" speculation, thus damaging his rivals best opportunity for a re-launch.
• When no election is called the Labour party points out that Brown always said that he was "getting on with the job" and that his "focus is on the work ahead". They point also to the following comments last week by Alastair Darling on GMTV: "I think people know there is a new Government, they have got a new prime minister, but they want the Government to get on with the job we were elected to do. I do not get any sense that people inside Government or outside Government are anxious for a dash to the polls."
• Labour encourages people to write that Brown could have won but decided not to go to the polls in the national interest.
Nick concludes that it is one "helluva" decision. I agree. It is tough and perhaps the events set for net weeks conference can help.
I reckon if the situation is this fevered and favourable by next Monday, Gordon may just go for it.
Here are the two likely scenarios and the reasons for them;
1. Election called next week:
• Labour has a good week, banks don't crash, animal diseases don't spread.
• Brown overshadows the start of the Tory party conference with a fever pitch of 'will he or won't he' speculation, before announcing on October 2nd that the country will vote on the 25th.
• His rationale is that the polls may never be better, David Cameron may never be weaker, the Tories will be denied the time they crave to spend millions in marginal seats. And Brown can say that the opposition parties, the polls and parts of the media demanded that he get his own mandate.
2. Election not called next week:
• Brown decides that he doesn't wish to risk becoming a Trivial Pursuit question - "Who was the shortest serving prime minister who did not die in office?" Answer - Gordon Brown with just 120 days in office (if he lost an election on October 25th). George Canning served only 119 having taken office in 1827, caught pneumonia and died.
•Ever the strategic player, Brown wants his spending review, Iraq troop announcement and health review in place before going to the polls and he fears that the polls might not survive the dark nights, a tricky EU summit on October 18th and more financial uncertainty.
• Brown still overshadows start of the Tory conference with a fever pitch of "will he or won't he" speculation, thus damaging his rivals best opportunity for a re-launch.
• When no election is called the Labour party points out that Brown always said that he was "getting on with the job" and that his "focus is on the work ahead". They point also to the following comments last week by Alastair Darling on GMTV: "I think people know there is a new Government, they have got a new prime minister, but they want the Government to get on with the job we were elected to do. I do not get any sense that people inside Government or outside Government are anxious for a dash to the polls."
• Labour encourages people to write that Brown could have won but decided not to go to the polls in the national interest.
Nick concludes that it is one "helluva" decision. I agree. It is tough and perhaps the events set for net weeks conference can help.
I reckon if the situation is this fevered and favourable by next Monday, Gordon may just go for it.
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