The Polls

As Tories head to Blackpool, Brown has a landslide lead

James Forsyth 12:05pm

Today’s polls are grim for the Tories. Labour lead by double digits in both and with a uniform national swing would have a majority well into three figures. Gordon Brown is also well ahead of David Cameron on the key personal measures. According to YouGov, Cameron has a net negative rating of 41 on being in touch with the concerns of people like you while Brown scores a plus 10 rating on this question. Populus has Brown leading 60 to 45% on the issue of caring about the problems that ordinary people face. While 50% think that Brown has answers to the key issues facing the country compared to only 30% for Cameron. YouGov also finds that 57% see Cameron as a lightweight compared to Brown and 56% think he is too like Blair. 64% of voters have little idea of what a Conservative government would be like. (Although, this numbers should fall with the planned policy blitz in Blackpool.)
There is one number in the polls, though, that should give the Tories cheer. YouGov reports that 58% of voters think that if Brown calls an election this year he will be doing so because “he believes Labour would win an early election but might lose the next election if he put it off until later.”

This all means nothing unless the polls are the same late next week. Then we would be in trouble.