Casualties of Chaos

It is difficult to comprehend the magnitude of all this chaos. It appears to be madness on the global stockmarkets at the moment as people have lost confidence and expect a whopping recession.

Surely things have to settle soon.

Steady as she goes

These three so called "big beasts" have a difficult job on their hands. They have to do enough in policy terms to not be accused of being a vacuum (which they aren't) but they don't want to do too much otherwise Labour will steel all their policies and badly implement them.

Secondly they have to watch the Labour attack line on them lacking experience on the economy. (Cameron did well in his conference speech dealing with that - they must maintain it).

Finally they have to make sure the Tory fringes don't get too excited otherwise there could be a bit too much gossip and moaning that could detract from Labours collapse. Over confidence would be a disaster.

If these issues can be handled then good polls should be maintained and a Labour loss realised at the next election.

Only 18 months to go!

Word Game

Mildly interesting stuff from the BBC on what the key words were at the political conferences:

The battle lines for the next general election are clearly drawn in the conference speeches of David Cameron and Gordon Brown.

The prime minister made "fairness" the key theme of his speech, mentioning it 22 times. Mr Cameron did not mention it at all, perhaps to avoid fighting Mr Brown on his own terms.

The Conservative leader instead made "responsibility" and "character" the twin themes of his own speech (20 and 10 times respectively), words that were barely used by Gordon Brown.

Mr Cameron, along with his Lib Dem counterpart Nick Clegg, clearly sense that Mr Brown is vulnerable on the issue of taxation. They each mentioned taxes at least 10 times, while the prime minister did not say the word once.

There is an additional fight going on over who is the party of change. Cameron said it 20 times, Brown 17 times and Clegg nine times.

Zimbabwe unity cabinet talks fail

The BBC notes that - Talks between Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and the new Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai have failed to reach agreement on a unity cabinet.

The two signed a power-sharing deal nearly three weeks ago after disputed presidential elections in June.

It was agreed that Mr Mugabe - Zimbabwe's leader for three decades - would remain president while Mr Tsvangirai would become prime minister.

Both sides said they would meet early next week to resume negotiations.

A spokesman for Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said the discussions had been "frank and realistic" but that negotiations remained deadlocked.

Mr Mugabe's spokesman, George Charamba, said differences remained over who should hold the finance and home affairs portfolios.

Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has confirmed he will continue his efforts to mediate the deadlock in Zimbabwe.

Mugger Mugabe will never give in will he? His tenacious ability to cling to power is incredible.

Will the Mandelson gamble pay off for Brown?

I doubt it but it could take some of the media spotlight off Brown and buy him a tiny bit of time. On the other hand Mandy could do for him if they fall out again. I think it would be a historical first if Mandy had to resign from Cabinet for a third time. So many possibilities.

Marginal Murder

The News of the World has conducted one of its marginal seat polls, in 192 Labour-held constituencies – details here. Taken Wednesday through Friday, it indicates Cameron is on course for a 78-seat majority with a 15-point lead. As is normal when a party is ahead by such a margin, the Tories are credited with better policies across the board. The Tory vote is slightly harder in the marginals – 62 percent say they’re certain to vote, v 56 percent for Labour supporters.

The poll would have the following effecton cabinet attendees. Anyone with less than a ten percent majority is in trouble.

Rank, Swing, Incumbent, 2nd, Constituency
1, 3.37%, Jacqui Smith, Con, Redditch
2, 4.66%, Tony McNulty, Con, Harrow East
3, 6.52%, Margaret Beckett, LD, Derby South
4, 7.02%, Jim Murphy, Con, Renfrewshire East
5, 8.25%, Alistair Darling, Con, Edinburgh South West
6, 8.27%, John Hutton, Con, Barrow & Furness
7, 9.58%, Jack Straw, Con, Blackburn
8, 9.59%, Liam Byrne, LD, Birmingham Hodge Hill
9, 10.76%, John Denham, Con, Southampton Itchen
10, 11.82%, James Purnell, Con, Stalybridge & Hyde
11, 11.94%, Nick Brown, LD, Newcastle East & Wallsend
12, 12.15%, Geoff Hoon, Con, Ashfield
13, 13.12%, Shaun Woodward, LD, St Helens South
14, 13.37%, Ed Balls, Con, Normanton
15, 16.99%, Alan Johnson, LD, Hull West & Hessle
16, 17.48%, Douglas Alexander, LD, Paisley & Renfrewshire South
17, 17.58%, Hazel Blears, LD, Salford
18, 20.04%, Ed Miliband, Con, Doncaster North
19, 20.33%, Hilary Benn, LD, Leeds Central
20, 20.38%, David Miliband, LD, South Shields
21, 20.56%, Paul Murphy, Con, Torfaen
22, 21.79%, Gordon Brown, SNP, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
23, 23.14%, Yvette Cooper , Con, Pontefract & Castleford
24, 23.26%, Harriet Harman, LD, Camberwell & Peckham
25, 23.67%, Andy Burnham, Con, Leigh

Spelman Sprinkles some magic

Caroline Spelman rules OK! well nearly. She said "no to more Heathrow" today. Thank god. I agree with her totally, a third runway there is not the answer. Heathrow sucks and blights the lives of millions in the south via noise pollution. The Heathrow lobby group that represents 250 companies and says a third runway is vital can take a running jump. The idea that the world will flee London because there is no third runway is just ridiculous. Our skys are crowded, Heathrow is a giant planning mistake and we should not compound the error, we should build elsewhere.

I also agreed completely with the high speed train network idea. I just hope the timescale is altered as it needs to be fully operational a lot sooner than 2027!

Finally I had to mark down her speech slightly as she tried to talk down Boris' idea of the Thames Estuary Airport. That idea is the great solution to our crowded and noisy sky problem. I think it can and will be built. However I do concede that the financial crisis is not the best time to be talking about spending billions. If you look at the graphic above you can see that it would be easy to link the Thames Estuary Airport into the new high speed railway!

Apocalypse Now - Revisited

If you read Peston's picks blog this afternoon you will have seen this post which neatly summarised how bad a day it was for the world of finance. However he assumed, like most, that the $700 billion congressional bail out would not be voted out. We were all wrong. Its incredible but they rejected it. Stock Markets are now nose diving. Just think, the FTSE had fallen over five percent and closed before the vote - they had assumed the bail out would be voted through. So the Dow Jones cold (and is) falling by a lot more than that.

Shares in banks have been mullered. The virus has spread to Europe with Fortis being bailed out and there are problems in the middle east and Russia with huge losses being made in one form or another. Some "Oligarchs" have lost over $5 billion dollars each - I feel their pain.

Everyone is saying that the Wall Street crisis could spread to main street USA and then the worlds high street. They may well be right which is why its incredible that congress won't return to fix the mess until Thursday. Its just insane.

God alone knows what the FTSE will make of it all tomorrow. Once again all thoughts of taking out the pension have been shelved for hundreds of thousands, jobs are now under threat as well as much much more.

Surely after the next few days the bottom of the financial crisis will have been reached. Then we will have to deal with the wider fallout in the real economy. It looks like a mild downturn in Western world may now be uprated and we could be feeling the big chill.

The Zim Crisis

Sorting out the mess of Zimbabwe's agricultural sector will be key to breathing life back into the country's economy and to the success of the power-sharing deal signed this week.

Firstly, there is to be an audit of the land to eliminate "multiple farm ownerships".

This has long been a call by the former opposition Movement for Democratic Change, which feels that much of the 11m hectares of prime farmland taken from 4,000 mainly white farmers has been given to ruling party loyalists.

The security of tenure the agreement guarantees to land holders, is key to rebooting the sector. Details of the guarantee are yet to be decided, but it is likely that land, now considered state property, will be allocated on 99-year leases.

This will allow capital to be raised, which has stunted new farmers, leaving them unable to pay for equipment and seeds. It will also allow some former farmers to come back. There will now be no race colour or creed barrier.

HOWEVER the main probelm will be the fact that the power sharing agreement is in general insane. It will cause schizophrenia. The only choice for those wishing to invest in Zim is to wait for Mugabe to die. There will then be a huge power struggle and only after that can investors make a rational decision.

STILL - At least Mugger Mugabes grip is weakening and at 84 years old, time is not on his side. once gone the military junta that keeps him on his pedastal (maybe forcibly) will have nowhere to hide and will have to put up or shut up.

Kenya update

Kenya's political parties spent millions of dollars bribing voters in last year's elections, a survey says. The Coalition for Accountable Party Finance says out of $90m raised by the parties, 40% was used as bribes. The report also says public corporations contributed to President Mwai Kibaki’s campaign via his party.

Some 1,500 people died and 600,000 others were displaced during violence following the disputed poll, before the rivals agreed to share power.

The allegations relate to both of Kenya's main parties - the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Mr Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU). ODM leader Raila Odinga last week became Kenya's prime minister (He's not quite as bad as the rest).

The disputed elections were the most competitive in Kenyan history. The lobby group now wants legislation to compel politicians to reveal their sources of income and expenditure during election campaigns.

The BBC has a handy Kenya in Crisis web page

Its all a damn shame. I love Kenya, it is stunning to look at and fun to be in. However it is so corrupt it is untrue, its population is booming resulting in a huge rise in relative poverty and the infrastructure is fading fast. These politicians will not help. Mwai Kibaki is as corrupt as they get. Kenya is in danger in going back to year zero. Sadly I see no way out for it, things get worse each year for the people, its no wonder tehy take the £1 bribe they are given to vote for people. (infact they usually don't vote for them, just take the money and so would you if it amounted to more than a days wages).

Politics Home Mass Marginal Polling

Published today: the PoliticsHome Electoral Index

Largest ever study of marginal seats
PoliticsHome forecast a Conservative majority of 146

In an election now Labour would suffer a 1997 scale defeat
8 cabinet ministers would lose their seats
Three figure majority for David Cameron

An exclusive PoliticsHome study of marginal seats, using an unprecedented sample of almost 35,000 people over 238 marginal constituencies and based on fieldwork carried out by YouGov, gives us the best ever idea of what would happen if a general election were held now.

The full report can be found here

Makes very interesting reading. I find the Labour meltdown prospect in Scotland of note as well as the Labour meltdown in the South. They need to get their scates on and fast. A survey of 35,000 people as well is pretty impressive even if it was done online.

‘Boris Island’ airport

The Sunday Times updates us on the Island in the Sea idea. I back Boris all the way on this and hope it gets done not matter what the scale of objection is from vested interests. I am extremely happy at the idea that Heathrow be phased out once this airport island is built. There is no doubt that aircraft noise pollution blights the lives of all those who live in the west of London. That is millions of people. There are also massive infrstructure problems at Heathrow and the cost of any expansion economically, environmentally and socially is far too great.

That is why the airport in sea, the Thames estuary, would be brilliant. It would allow brand new infrastructure to take the strain. Also the noise pollution issue would virtually disappear. THIS website has lots of infoont he possibilities.

Come on lets build it!

APOCALYPSE NOW - AVERTED

Today has been a bad day in the credit markets and the stock market has not recovered but it has calmed a bit.

However the main news is that the FSA has banned the short selling of financial stocks. Will this halt the impending disaster? I suspect that there is a lot of bad news to come. The Banks still need hundreds of billions of fresh cash to shore up their balance sheets and a frozen credit market is still not helping. So the easy lending days are gone. However with the US and the UK regulators both acting to stop short selling it may calm the stock market and give the brokers a chance to cool down too and get a nights sleep.

Still we are left with the question of whether the attacks on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will be successful? And will the European and even some Asian banks admit to losses? Europe certainly needs an honesty session.

It was a mob killing

I blame father time for influencing the British public and clearing encouraging them to kill Labour. Surely its attempted murder and I suspect it will end up in a brutal brutal killing.

Its all ebbs and flows you see. That is my theory of everything.

Destruction in sight

According to Electoral Calculus, this would give the Tories 493 seats, Labour 121 and leave the Lib Dems on 8 seats.

Would love to be a fly on the wall in No. 10 tonight.

Lloyds rescues HBOS

Great news for Lloyds in terms of grabbing market share. Lets just hope they haven't bought toxic assets.

Also shows the FSA, the Bank of England and the rest in proactive mode.

But further highlights just how nightmarish this banking crisis is. Apparently HBOs was leaking deposits on a massive scale. It had to be sold before the leak became a flood. Before the middle classes hit the tinternet and started moving there money.

The stock market has still tanked and this is not over.

Labour Isn't Working (Again)

On any normal news day, the fact that unemployment has gone up by 5% in one month - let me repeat that, 5% in one month, would have been the top story of the day. Yet, it has been eclipsed by the Lloyds/HBOS story. Unemployment is at a nine year high. For a government which defines economic success by the length of the dole queues, this is a bitter blow. I have been trying in vain to Google the figures for April 1997, but it seems sure that very soon the headline unemployment figure will soon exceed that which existed when Labour took power.

One economist predicted that unemployment would reach 2 million by the end of the year. I'll make another prediction. Next month the rate will rise by more than 100,000. That is one prediction I hope very much will be wrong.

Home Office caught out over immigration statistics

Good spot from three line whip

Well, well: the statistical chickens are coming home to roost for a government that has long played fast and loose with official figures.

The Home Office apologised for interfering with immigration figures

The Home Office has been forced to say sorry for seeking to interfere in the way immigration figures were released recently.

It seems old habits die hard. In order to inject some credibility into official figures, the Government agreed that they should all be issued by a new arm's length body under the auspices of the new UK Statistics Authority.

But when immigration figures were published last week, the Home Office sent an official along to the Office for National Statistics briefing to hand out a press release that gave a distinctly unbalanced take on the subject.

The Home Office decided that the subject of greatest importance was a decline in the number of eastern Europeans coming to the UK, a line that was apparently followed up by at least one national newspaper.

Now, Prof David Hand, the head of the Royal Statistical Society, has complained that this "succeeded in partially diverting some journalists' attention away from the comprehensive range of data being presented towards one specific issue".

In truth, it should not have had this effect because any journalist following immigration and crime figures over the years have known to take any Home Office press notice with a pinch of salt.

They are always selective with their use of the statistics in order to cast the government in a positive light. That is why public faith in official figures has plummeted over the years.

As Prof Hand says in a letter to Sir Michal Scholar, head of the UK Statistics Authority: "The whole incident epitomises some of the bad practices that have helped to undermine public confidence in official statistics.... At worst this can help to 'bury' news perceived as unfavourable to the Government."

When you think of the vast sums of our money spent by the Government we at least have a basic right to know, without any statistical jiggery pokery, what we are getting for it.

Yet finding the truth, or anything like it, is often impossible because yardsticks are changed, goalposts moved, timescales altered, benchmarks lowered - all to make failure as difficult to discern as possible.

On the positive side, however, we appear to be seeing that rare creature: a state regulator with teeth. Previously, there was a Statistics Commission that was meant to keep an eye on all this but it was powerless to stop the abuse.

The head of the new statutory authority, Sir Michael Scholar, is a former permanent secretary at the Department of Trade and Industry. In an interview with this newspaper, he likened the creation of the authority to Gordon Brown's decision to give independence to the Bank of England in 1997. "Good statistics are as important as sound money or clean water," he said.

Maybe the Home Office and other departments have now got the message.

The Polls are horrendous for Labour

Today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times was taken between 10th and 12th September. As well as a strong Tory lead, the poll also shows the Liberal Democrats down 2 points as the party's conference kicks off.

"The YouGov survey for The Sunday Times puts the Conservatives up one, on 46%, and Labour up two, on 27%...

"The Liberal Democrats, gathering in Bournemouth for their annual conference, are down two points on 16%.

"Some 73% of voters felt Mr Brown was doing a bad job as prime minister, compared with 20% who thought he was doing well.

"That gave him a net negative rating of 53%, while Tory leader David Cameron had a net positive rating of 27%."

Happy days for the Tories, very depressing for Labour. We shall have to see if the conference season does actually change anything.

Is Mugger Mugabe Muted

Or has he kept his grip on power. From the gossip that has come out of the negotiations it seems he will maintain his presidential position, control of the army and the cabinet. Tsvangari gets to be Prime Minister, controls the Police and has a panel to revue policy. It seems to me that if that proves correct then Mugabe will be happy. He can let Morgan get on with sorting the economy and getting the 1 and half billion dollars of international aid flowing, safe in the knowledge that as President he cannot be charged with war crimes. Furthermore he can be a pest and stop Morgan fully implementing his plans if he does not like them.

We shall see on Monday when the deal is announced.

I fear Mugabe is not done yet.

Time For A Leadership Election says the Times

I agree. Read here for their take on it.

Political Betting agrees with the analysis.

Brown has had it anyway but calling their bluff and winning would delay the inevitable for him.

Dominic Grieve draws the line

And he is right. Today the Times spots that the government has "quietly sanctioned the powers for sharia judges to rule on cases ranging from divorce and financial disputes to those involving domestic violence".

Apparently rulings issued by a network of five sharia courts are enforceable with the full power of the judicial system, through the county courts or High Court. The decision has been welcomed by Inayat Bunglawala from the Muslim Council of Britain.

Sheikh Faiz-ul-Aqtab Siddiqi, whose Muslim Arbitration Tribunal runs the courts, said he had taken advantage of a clause in the Arbitration Act 1996.

Under the act, the sharia courts are classified as arbitration tribunals. The rulings of arbitration tribunals are binding in law, provided that both parties in the dispute agree to give it the power to rule on their case.

Siddiqi said: “We realised that under the Arbitration Act we can make rulings which can be enforced by county and high courts. The act allows disputes to be resolved using alternatives like tribunals. This method is called alternative dispute resolution, which for Muslims is what the sharia courts are.”

Jewish Beth Din courts operate under the same provision in the Arbitration Act and resolve civil cases, ranging from divorce to business disputes. They have existed in Britain for more than 100 years, and previously operated under a precursor to the act.

Dominic Grieve, the shadow home secretary, said: “If it is true that these tribunals are passing binding decisions in the areas of family and criminal law, I would like to know which courts are enforcing them because I would consider such action unlawful. British law is absolute and must remain so.”

Douglas Murray, the director of the Centre for Social Cohesion, said: “I think it’s appalling. I don’t think arbitration that is done by sharia should ever be endorsed or enforced by the British state.”

All a bit tricky really. The Beth Din is allowed to operate so why not the Sharia courts. Its because of fear, fear of the future. If the British Rule of law is not enforced now then it has had it. In the future the Muslim population is going to be very large. Fine its part of the changei Britain and the world. However we cannot have a parallel legal system. it won't work and could cause all sorts of social problems.

Therefore I agree with Dominic Grieve. The line must be drawn now. If that means amending legislation then do it even if it affects the Beth Din and Sharia Courts.

Party Conferences - What Fun

1) Do the Lib Dems really need a 5 day conference even if they do discuss policy - no.

2) Are the Lib Dems annoyed that the Labour night of the long knives on Brown has stolen the headlines - Yes they don't get much coverage and this is their chance.

3) Will the Conservatives blow our minds at their conference in Brum - No they will be desperate to avoid a mistake and loving the new found attention of the lobby industry who have massively stepped up their interest in the Tories. Champagne all round.

4) Labour Conference - For the delegates it will be misery as they watch their party at first hand attempt to decapitate itself. For the media it will be a frenzy.

5) Will we be any more informed as the general publc afterwards - No.

6) Will the Politicos have had a good time and enjoyed the freebies - Ohh yes.

This can't last Jonah!

Poor Prime Mentalist, as Guido Fawkes would say. I do think I am beginning to feel sorry for him which is disgraceful. Its just that I can see this being a protracted and painful end. This man will cling on to the post he has striven for his entire life and just not been up to it when he got there. That in itself must hurt but the bad luck and bitter way this is ending must hurt even more.

It just can't go on though. Labour need to back him or sack him. If they choose the latter then they need to start thinking about who can succeed him. I think thats where the problems start. The idea that Brown has failed is not the issue, its agreed. The issue is what to to about it.

The Country at large, the media and the Labour Party itself are going to tire of this mess. While the issue of leadership festers it leaves the Conservatives completely off the hook. The media and the PLP are not challenging them at all and there are a few areas where they could.

Get Carter - Carter Got

"Stephen Carter being moved down the pecking order inside the Number 10 bunker - from chief strategist to not so chief strategist? - is a sign that more blood will flow, and soon, in the Number 10 bunker." - So says the Times. Well Carter is on the way out but its not a bad thing is it? Just what understanding did he possess of big time politics. Answer = None.

So no wonder the Brown loyalists want him gone,m but its not infighting its just they think he is crap and not up to it at a time when they really need quality. Does it mean further blood on the floor will follow as a consequence? No, there will be more blood on the carpet in 10 Downing Street because the Labour Party is in decline. The two things are not the same.

Brown V Darling

There has been talk today that Brown may have to ditch Darling after the "terrible" interview Darling gave to the Guardian. Further, Downing Street are "fuming" and the attack dogs are straining at the leash.

Well what rubbish. Brown and Darling go way back. They are friends and their families get on well. So I just can't see it at all. I can see that Brown may be a bit miffed and will have asked Darling what he was on about. Also I can imagine Darling thinking that perhaps he could have phrased it all a bit differently and not been so relaxed as he was in his holiday home. Certainly Darling looks knackered despite his holiday.

The BBC interview in which Darling can be seen to be flustered about it all is here: Brian Taylor's interview. But having a trembling lip and being flustered is a long way from being sacked folowing a major fallout with Brown. They are friends. They have a slightly different view on what line to take on the economy. But both understand how tricky it is going to be.

Finally if Darling is ditched in yet another suicidal move by Brown thenwho will replace Darling?

Home Office Proposal - Post Charge questionning

All well and good this idea BUT:

a) The Police have had to improve their questionning to make sure they have enough prior to charge. This proposed change would allow them to get lazy and just ask for a post charge interview. That is not efficient.

b) The whole reason for stooping this practice 24 years ago was to stop abuse and oppressive questionning etc.

c) The most important impact will be this; They legal services commission will have to completely change the fee structure for solicitors attending at Police Stations. At the the moment it is all fixed fee. But if solicitors have to keep coming back for post charge interviews as part of the fixed fee then only one thing will happen. Criminal solicitors cannot take such a loss of income (it is hard enough as it is). Therefore they will simply refuse to attend or tell the client to no comment via phone. This will not be in the interests of justice.

I doubt this has been thought about but it willbe a big problem.

Finally remember that police can re interview post charge at the moment but only if they have a very good reason. (surely that is the best approach).

The Polls - The nightmare continues

ConservativeHome - "The Tories remain well ahead in the latest YouGov survey for The Daily Telegraph. CCHQ insist there is no room for complacency and that's one of the reasons there was annoyance at Eric Pickles for his recent suggestion that it was "impossible" for Labour to win the next election."

How many months has the lead been around this mark for now? Must be 5 or 6 at least. Brown is absolutely finished. His personal ratings are still the worst for any primeminister ever and any hope of recovery is going to be scuppered by the economy. The Tories need to maintain a steady course and be the viable alternative. Yes more concrete policies are needed but not yet. (Labour would only nick them and then implement them abysmally).


Plus this is mid term polling and the Tories always do better at election time so we could add on a few more percentage points on to the above.

However the fact that bondary changes will affect the majority of seats next time means calculating possible majorities is virtually impossible and futile because nominal figures are tricky.

Still another 20 point lead spells continued gloom in the Brown Bunker.

Russian Bear

Everyone has come to the view that the Russians have gone nuts and will aggressively defend "their" sphere of influence. Certainly the Georgia intervention was a case of protecting such a thing. Well I understand to an extent their position:

The Russian State has always considered itself as a strong man. It has had to put up with 15 to 20 years of weakness when the West could expand its sphere of influence. Now the Russians are back. They have Oil and Gas and can throw their weight around. They feel the EU and NATO are messing in their backyard and they can't understand why Europe would take that risk. In the Ruskies minds all they have to to is threaten to turn the gas and oil taps off and all hell will break loose in Europe. They are right off course.

So it will all end in stalemate. Europe will bluster but do nothing and Russia will not do anything so overtly aggressive again in the near future. The reason why? Because if Russia did carry our their threat to turn the taps off it would hurt them as well as us. (just look at the recent performance of their stock market - it has dived).

So really all we have learnt recently is that Russia will not be "pushed around" by the West. They are back on the map. If they went further and intervened elsewhere or turned off the taps it would be a massive gamble and I can't see what incentive they would have for doing it.

(Still doesnt help Georgia. A sovereign nation - that situation requires a UN peacekeeping force and gradual transition back to normality and the official forming of semi autonmous regions).

We shall see.

Mugger Mugabe - Exit Now Mate

Shouted at, heckled, booed and chanted at during the state opening of Parliament< Mugabe left annoyed and shocked. He could not believe what had just happened. That showed to me just how hopelessly out if touch he is and what a complete state of denial he was in.

However he refuses to go. He is playing all his cards in the power sharing talks. Every year people predict he will go. Yet he is still there clinging to power as are the military chiefs that keep so close to him.

At 84 maybe it will be infirmity that will get him in the end.

PS. Come on Thabo Umbeki. Keep the pressure up and prove that your queit diplomacy was the best way after all.

Tower Hamlets and Ramadan

Stories about none Muslim Councillors not being able to eat during Council meetings while Ramadan is on are not helpful at all for community cohesion. Tower Hamlets cannot have any idea about the upset this kind of story causes nationwide. It grates with the majority of people and creates negative views.

If not true they should get out there and say so, now. If true they should change policy rapidly.

The pres should also be careful how they report stories like this. They must make sure it is true and report it neutrally.

Darling - “arguably the worst” slump in 60 years

Not a helpful comment for Brown and the Government, but is it true? If you brought a house a couple of years ago then you are not happy now; paying energy bills and putting petrol in the car is painful now; if you were starting to take your pension now then you will be getting about 20% less than a few years ago;the banks have yet to work through the credit crisis fallout; so mortgages and house sales are still low; unemployment is expected to top 2 million by Christmas; the Poles are going home, is that a sign?; the high street claims to be in agony; personal debt is still enormous and the Treasury is skint.

Yes there is a problem but at this stage its not the worst thing to happen in sixty years. The fact he said anything is key. Darling clearly wants to brace us for the future and make sure he is not blamed for it.

It is almost unprecedented for a Chancellor to speak out like this. So the presure is beginning to tell. Brown will also be pissed off that Darling has said the voters are "pissed off" with NuLabour. It just does not help and diverts attention from the economic relaunch plan. That plan seems No.10 driven and may be another reason for Darling speaking out as he and the Treasury are being sidelined in the process.

Tories Hotter Election Favourites Than Ever

So say William Hill and here are the odds:

TORIES HOTTER ELECTION FAVOURITES THAN EVER
The Conservatives are 1/4 favourites - the shortest odds tghey have been sinced losing power eleven years ago -to win the next General Election with William Hill, who make Labour 11/4, the longest odds they have been since coming to power.'There is no sign of a revival in support for Labour to win the next Election under Gordon Brown' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.

(they are surely completely right above but I am far less conivnced with the generosity of the odds below relating to David Davis:

WHAT WILL DAVID DAVIS GET UP TO NEXT?
AFTER HIS bloodless victory in the Haltemprice By Election, David Davis is quoted at 7/1 by William Hill to launch his own Political Party in time for the next General Election (must field at least two candidates); 10/1 to stand in a Tory leadership contest against David Cameron before the next General Election; 12/1 to regain his position as Shadow Home Secretary before the next Election; 14/1 to become the next leader of the Tory Party.

There is no way DD is going to stand again in a Tory election so odds of 10 to 1 look rubbish. He is too old and does not want it. Therefore 14/1 also looks hopeless. However 12/1 to become shadow home sec again is a good bet. I reckon he might come back straight into that position. Remember Dominic Grieve QC MP has yet to relinquish his shadow AG title and so could always leave the shadow home sec job leaving the way for DD to return.

The Polls they are a changing

BUT only a bit. Populus has the Tories at a mere 13 point lead. There cannot be any complaints at that. That means the last 20 or so polls have given massive leads to the Tories. Gordon can't be too happy. Perhaps its got to the stage where they just shrug their shoulders and get on with preparing the next disaster of a policy. We shall see how the lan lies in two years time but Labour cannot go on like this, which puts pressure on Brown and Co.

G8 Summit

To me the whole G8 thing seems increasingly out of touch. Many of those there both people and countries represent the past. The rubbish way they handle issues and the media does not help. The photocall at the eight course dinner, which followed a six course lunch, being an example.



Change is everywhere and I am not sure how long the logo here will be accurate for. Does the G8 really have the influence that the logo suggests. I am not so sure now.



Certainly it will be interesting to see how long we are invited for!

Its Oh So Quiet in Haltemprice and Howden

Come on DD make some noise.

He really is having a hard time getting into the media at the moment. I almost feel sorry for him but then I still haven't quite got why he quit in the first place.

Cameron and Catholicism

Well he may not have converted like Tony Blair but he did visit and speak at a Catholic Church in Glasgow East. Cameron was there in order to campaign in the byelection and of course to take a whole lot of the southern press pack to Glasgow East to show them and therefore the country just how badly Labour have messed up over the last 30 years. It is a deprived hellhole Labour created and have done nothing to solve. The former Labour MP should be ashamed of himself. I truly hope he is. 30 years an MP and bugger all change to show for it.

Some have seen the Catholic angle as a bit much. Obviously there is a lot of history in Glasgow between Catholics and Protestants and it still simmers today although in different forms.

Most people in Glasgow East are Catholics and they have always voted Labour over the last century. Well that could just change and I see no problem with the Church visit.

I do see a problem for Labour in Glasgow East. It would be incredible if they lost to the SNP but a week after the prospect of defeat arose, Labour have failed to go on the attack. Infact they have suffered a "lost weekend" while trying to find a candidate. Thank god they have managed to persuade their fourth or fifth choice to stand!

Its being called the broken society by-election by the Tories. Not a bad title unless you live in the constituency. Its not going to win any new votes but then I don't suppose the Tories care. highlighting Labour pain is enough, the SNP can take the glory on this. Not good for the Union though.

On the train to Truro

It occurs to me on this never ending and cramped journey that we really ought to improve public transport. The system sucks.

Surely we could get proper high speed trains that won't cost the earth to go on. I know the government are looking into this idea now. They are probably the umpteenth one to do so but they really should.

Anyway only three more hours to Truro.

Watchdog rejects Treasury accounts

According to the Times:

“..Mr Darling is fighting a bruising battle with the National Audit Office (NAO), which is unhappy at the way that the nationalisation of Northern Rock is being treated in the Treasury’s books. The annual report from No 11 was published yesterday but, in a highly unusual departure from normal procedure, without the department’s resource accounts..A Treasury spokesman confirmed the delay but denied that the spending watchdog had threatened to qualify its accounts. The books must be published before the parliamentary recess in three weeks’ time…”

I know this was from earlier in the week but it is still annoying me. I simply cannot believe that they ahve been unable to be able to sort this out yet, having known of the issues for months. It makes the UK look like the EU with 11 years of unaudited accounts.

This story will not capture the public imagination but it is another dent in the PM's Treasury legacy. Certainly it caps another bad week for Alistair Darling.

The Treasury is under pressure. Too many people have left and their is very low moral all at a time when they are needed to be strong. It may be tricky but they should work this out quickly. I know they will never agree with the NAO as that would result in smashing the "golden rule" on borrowing to bits, but it would be good!

MP's, pay and expenses - A lost chance

I don't think MP's should be in it for the money and think their pay combined with the pension is not too far off where it should be. Expenses, well that has to change. The system must be more transparent and the blatant abuse by some will surface soon and they will regret the £2000 TV from John Lewis purchase as well they should.

However if I was one of them I may have made the following calculation:

People can't stand us as it is and so sod them, we can't get lower in their estimation so we may as well get all we can. Ergo I would have voted for the maximum pay rise and then looked to vote for an expenses system that gave me the most. They did not and have still ended up looking stupid. No one will give them credit for limiting the pay rise and everyone will ridicule them for keeping the current abusive expense system.

What should happen is that they don't vote on their pay at all. Someone else should tell them how much they will get. Expenses should be very very transparent and all MP's should note the following:

a) Their are thousands of wannabe MP's and so in terms of supply and demand economics they are lucky to get paid at all.

b) They are not special. Most people could do their job. It requires no qualifications and the only real difficulty, especially for a back bencher is i) the long hours of "work" and "gossip" and ii) having to deal with those pesky constituents by getting your secretary or caseworker to deal with them.

c) They are meant to serve the public not themselves.

Now obviously there are a great many brilliant and hard working MP's. Equally there are many who are just plain rubbish. Infact the low quality of many is surprising given the competition to get in.

Ed Balls

Is a moron. I can't stand the man and his comments on education this week and the need NOT to inform parents and kids of SATs exam dates show a breathtaking lack of connection with parents in the country. It was his answer to reducing the stress around exams, "just don't tell them". Not only is that impractical as the word would get out, it also shows dismissive arrogance. What a plonker.

The news that the outsourced marking system has gone to pot seems to have surprised Mr Balls. I don't see why as many a news network anticipated this disaster weeks ago. Why did Mr Balls and his Department miss it. Anyway he has announced a review into why children and parents will have to wait weeks longer than anticipated for results (ie hope the news cycle moves on). This disaster also plays havoc for schools who can't know what kid should go where until the results are back and hence can't plan.

This all comes on top of his recent attacks on faith schools and grammar schools. The man is nuts. He will not stop until he has lowered the education system to the lowest common denominator and will then claim victory.

Glasgow East - Gordon and his destiny

In the unlikely event that the Labour Party lose this by election it has got to be curtains for Brown. That in turn would be bad news for the Tory Party. The PM needs to stick it out and lead Labour to landslide defeat in two years time. The Tories don't want a new Labour leader who may have a vague understanding of whats going on on the ground, something which Brown does not get.

However a lot of commentors and punters seem very optimistic about a defeat for Labour despite them having achieved 61% of the vote last time. Glasgow East is Labour Land, overturning a 13,000+ majority will be near impossible even though Labour is Leaderless in Scotland and tanking in the polls.

Yet the bookies have the SNP as odds on favourite to win and the Westminster Village seem to think its a genuine possibility. Its all incredible really.

I understand that Labour has this afternoon picked a candidate to stand which clears up one mess for them after their preferred man pulled out last night. However this MSP will not have long to stamp authority on the campaign or time to adjust to the oncoming media onslaught.

We shall see who wins on 24 July. Whoever does so will have a hell of a difficult time in improving the lives of those that live in what is statistically not the best place to live. It appears to be a huge social housing programme gone disastrously wrong adn no one has adressed it for 30 years.

Lost Discs - We are sorry

The report was revealed today in the House by Alistair Darling.

A mere 25 millions personal records ehh. I find it difficult to blame Government Ministers directly. I should not though. If they had made data protection a priority then we would not be in this situation. But they did not so mandarins obviously did not take it seriously and therefore it was not focussed on by people below. Infact the investigation revealed that it was junior employees who felt there were risks in using this method but were ignored.

Weak Government, poor management, poor leadership and 11 years of manic headline chasing instead. What a waste of a golden opportunity.

Wendy Alexander - Another Mess

Wendy has messed up again. Been found guilty of failing to declare. Its does not seem to be entirely her fault. She asked the relevant Parliamentary clerks what to do and they said no need to declare. An advice from a hotshot QC contradicted that and here we are she is in trouble.

I am not that bothered about it really and wouldn't be if she was my MSP. The problem is that this is one in a long line of mistakes and generally poor leadership. Wendy does not cut it in the media, has hopeless attack lines and no interesting ideas whatsoever to put forward. The Scottish Labour Party is in about as much turmoil as their counterparts South of the border.

I admit she is not helped by having Gordon Brown as PM and her brother in the Cabinet, it takes away from her attempts at authority.

But generally she is not good enough I am afraid. Lucky for her that there is no alternative Scottish Labour Leader. A bit like their is really not much of a Labour alternative to Brown. Trouble up North and trouble down South.

Flock, Safari, Firefox, Opera and Internet Explorer

I have been having a look at various web browsers the main ones being listed above.

• I reckon Flock (which is new) will be a big hit in the youth market as it better enables communication between people, easy drag and drop feature and clever blogging capabilities. It generally has lots of add ons built in.

• Firefox has to be the best all rounder and beats Internet Explorer which seems slightly slower and more tired looking. However the slowness may be a result of now having the best security (so the experts say). Firefox has loads of add ons that you can go and get and thereby end up with your own personalised web browser.
  

• Safari looks brilliant, it is Apple stuff and similar in look to the i-pod software. It also has some nifty features but does seem to be a little slow on page opening.

• Opera is quick very quick. Very simple and so fewer obvious accessories. It is also supposed to have the worst security but how we know that I don't know.

• Internet Explorer. Well we all know it and in recent years it has got better. I think the main reason for its improvement being the above opposition beginning to challenge its dominance.
  

• Finally I have omitted netscape as the latest version of it will be the last and they have advised all their loyal fans to go to firefox as its supposed to be the closest to their operating style. That is true but has the added benefit of not being Microsoft owned.

So having wasted an hour I shall stick to firefox but keep messing around with Safari and maybe Flock (which will be good once I have set it up and integrated email, facebook etc etc).

Testing Flock

Well does it work then?

DD and Labour Home Wed!

Biased BBC

Is it just me or does the BBC sometimes appear biased. It is hard to pin down but evolves around their culture and impacts upon their news coverage. Some of Nick Robinsons blogging has attracted criticism recently and I think the critics have a point. Judge for youself and read a few of his posts. They are all here.

The BBC culture has also been criticised recently by the BBC Trust who say it is overly focussed on London. No kidding and "now to our Northern correspondent for more" sounds a bit like we are going to see some "poor Southerner" tied to a lampost in some bleak wasteland and of course you don't need more than one correspondent for the North!

Although its just a feeling people have if the BBC don't address it, especially in their news coverage, they will lose prestige and audience share.

Mugger Mugabe

The big man of Zimbabwe is at it again. He and his new "best" friends in the military, security services and elsewhere are really really cracking down on everyone who is even contemplating voting against him. I don't know who is in control anymore but they are all nuts.

There has been talk of Mugabe being the nominal leader and the military running the show. I don't care, they all have to go.

Today various sanctions have been suggested. Nick Clegg wants a crackdown on remittances from overseas. A harsh but fair approach because it is a bit scatter gun approach but it would hit the elite in the pocket (as well as those who rely on relatives to subsist).

Australia has banned education of the elites' children. Everyone else should copy that idea. It's a little one that would have a big impact. I would also deport them all back to Zimbabwe to be with their family and hopefully they will get a glimpse at how the other 99 percent of their countrymen live.

The UK and others are also thinking of applying pressure on South Africa to cut the electricity supply that Zim relies on. Again it affects everyone but really would get at the elite and apply pressure on them. Furthermore the South African Government needs all the spare electricity it can get as its economy begins to suffer from shortages.

I would also go after the hidden billions that are no doubt stashed in Swiss banks accounts and elsewhere. Get freezing orders etc.

Furthermore I would actually enforce the travel ban on the elite and especially Mugabes wife, Grace. She would hate the loss of those shopping trips.

Finally we should consider actively undermining Mugabe in his own country. I know there are a whole load of arguments against it but people are dying there. We must act.

To be the best informed person on the planet about Zimbabwe visit THIS site.

Great Libertarian Quotes

Donal Blaney has gathered together some great quotes on civil liberties:

1. Extremism in the defence of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit is justice is no virtue (Barry Goldwater).

2. Liberty is not a means to a political end. It is itself the highest political end (Lord Acton).

3. If a nation values anything more than freedom, it will lose its freedom; and the irony of it is that if it is comfort or money that it values more, it will lose that, too (Somerset Maugham).

4. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women. When it dies there no constitution, no law, no court can save it (Justice Learned Hand).

5. A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves (Edward R Murrow).

6. Those who expect to reap the benefits of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it (Thomas Paine).

7. Give me liberty or give me death! (Patrick Henry).

8. First they came for the Jews, but I did nothing because I'm not a Jew. Then they came for the socialists, but I did nothing because I'm not a socialist. Then they came for the Catholics, but I did nothing because I'm not a Catholic. Finally, they came for me, but by then there was no one left to help me (Pastor Father Niemoller).

9. I have sworn upon the altar of God, eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man (Thomas Jefferson).

10. Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom. It is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves (William Pitt).

Is it a constitutional First?

Dominic Grieve is, as I understand it, at the present time both Shadow Attorney General and Shadow Home Secretary. I don't think that has been done before.

Certainly it would not be allowed in Government. It is a blatant conflict of interest. Locking them up on the one hand and looking into appeals on the other hand. Not as big a conflict now we have the minister for justice but still big.

The New Shadow Home Sec

Here is what Wikipedia says about his parliamentary career: (More here)

Dominic Grieve was elected as a councillor in the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham in 1982, remaining a councillor until 1986. He contested the Norwood constituency in the London Borough of Lambeth at the 1987 general election but finished in second place some 4,723 votes behind the veteran Labour MP John Fraser (although increasing the Conservative vote).

He was elected to the House of Commons for the Buckinghamshire seat of Beaconsfield at the 1997 general election following the retirement of Tim Smith. Grieve was elected with a majority of 13,987 votes and has remained the MP there since, increasing his majority at each successive election. He made his maiden speech on May 21, 1997.

Grieve was instrumental in the defeat of the Labour Government in early 2006 in relation to the proposal that the Home Secretary should have power to detain suspected terrorists for periods up to 90 days without charge[citation needed]. He broadcasts in French on French radio and television[citation needed]. He is not, however, an enthusiast for the EU[citation needed]. Grieve has strongly opposed equal gay rights. He was a member of both the Environmental Audit and the Statutory Instruments select committees from 1997 to 1999.

William Hague promoted him to the frontbench in 1999 when he became a spokesman on Scottish affairs, moving to speak on home affairs as the spokesman on criminal justice following the election of Iain Duncan Smith as the new leader of the Conservative Party in 2001, and was then promoted to be shadow Attorney General by Michael Howard in 2003. He also had responsibility for community cohesion on behalf of the Conservative Party. He was retained as shadow Attorney General by the new Conservative Leader, David Cameron and was appointed Shadow Home Secretary on 12 June 2008 following the resignation of David Davis.