Thursday, 8 November 2007
The Future
He has had a terrible few months and the mistakes of the last ten years are enormous.
However if he has a go, via his legislation, of getting on with the job that may well just be enough.
That really does seem incredible to me. The scale of the problems either not solved or further inflamed by labour are vast.
But events keep happening and don't allow us to sit back and take a broad view of it all.
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Tuesday, 9 October 2007
Brown gets the headlines on IHT
PBR: IHT move grabs headlines but will anyone be better off?
Tax 09 October 2007
Commenting on today’s announcement to raise the IHT threshold to £600,000,Carolyn Steppler, tax director at KPMG in the UK<, said:
“This change, although likely to grab headlines, is in practice only giving to most people what they already have.
“Many married couples will already have drafted wills to allow each spouse to take advantage of their nil rate band through the use of a nil rate band discretionary trust. This was possible even for the family home.
“It is very disappointing to note that the proposals will not benefit unmarried or non-Civil Partnership couples, or siblings who have lived together as in the recent case of the elderly Burden sisters – who had lived together all their lives before one sister faced having to sell the house in her eighties when her sister died.”
Monday, 8 October 2007
Ed Balls and Iain Duncan Smith
Iain Duncan Smith and Ed Balls clash on BBC2's Daily Politics about Gordon Brown's visit to Iraq to announce troop withdrawals and Conservative plans to cut inheritance tax.
This is good stuff. We need driven, angry Tory M's that have had enough of Labour. Do you trust Ed Balls? Me neither.
The Brown Press Conference
Adam Boulton, Nick Robinson and Tom Oborne have had a go on the election issue. He has handled it quite well if only allowing a question at a time. Clearly though it cannot be good to face one tough question after another.
Have to see how it ends but he is doing okay in the face of a very annoyed bunch of political hacks.
Update: why doesnt he just say that he wants to make a case for his "vision" and the polls show he has yet to do so on newly raised issues like IHT.
Update II: Tom Oborne is back with a 2nd attack Q. Brown still maintaining he could have won but wants to sell his vision for change first. This is a rubbish line and anyway what is his vision? He referred earlier to the last manifesto. If it is all in there then why does he need time to set it out again.
Update III: Am blogging from home due to stomach turmoil. Was on the road to recovery half an hour ago but a glass of water seems to have been an error.
Sunday, 7 October 2007
The YouGov/ Sunday Times Poll
Was Gordon just not ready
What will Monday bring?
BBC does the paper round well
Press field day over 'bottler' PM
They may be tomorrow's chip paper, but the Sunday editions will make painful reading for the PM - or "Bottler Brown" as many are calling him.
His decision not to hold an early poll has fired the gun for that cruellest of sports - a press field day.
Mr Brown gets a thorough going over in both the broadsheets and the tabloids.
And in what is surely a first, both the Mail on Sunday and Independent on Sunday opt for the same headline: "Brown bottles it."
Papers of all persuasions agree that the PM's "dithering" has damaged his reputation for strong leadership and as a conviction politician.
Predictions of a stronger than expected Tory fightback also abound. Most cite Conservative tax proposals as the decisive factor in their sudden turnaround in the polls.
And just as it was The Sun "Wot Won It" in 1992, the News of the World says it "killed" Election 2007 with a poll showing the PM would lose his majority.
Mr Brown is now "on notice" and vulnerable to attacks from the Labour left, it warns. He has "squandered" the political capital gained since taking over from Tony Blair.
In the Observer, Mr Brown is facing a full-blown "political crisis" and will "pay for his unwise gamble".
Columnist Andrew Rawnsley predicts the retreat will "prompt a reassessment of the Prime Minister that will not be to his advantage".
The Sunday Telegraph also devotes acres of space to the prime minister's "climbdown". But its editorial concludes his decision is "the right one".
Columnist Matthew d'Ancona taunts the PM that his "colour will now be yellow" and that he has "only himself to blame".
In the Sunday Times Mr Brown is "all mouth and no trousers" - helpfully illustrated with a mocked-up picture of the PM in his boxer shorts.
It concludes he is a "victim of his own spin" and says the country will think less highly of him.
Meanwhile, an article by Tory leader David Cameron goads that the Tories are ready but the PM is not.
The Independent on Sunday's John Rentoul says Mr Brown has gone from "sure-footed statesman to nervous wreck" in the space of a week.
An editorial concludes it is the "right decision, wrong reason" and that having promised to play straight, Mr Brown looks "insincere" after stoking election speculation.
A Shrank cartoon depicts a sweating PM gnawing fingernails emblazoned with the words "No. Yes. No!"
The Mail on Sunday also expects the PM to "pay a high price for his cynical game". Its columnist Julia Langdon says the episode has highlighted Mr Brown's fatal flaw - the "funking" of make-or-break decisions.
However, the Sunday Mirror offers a ray of hope, arguing that Mr Brown has shown he is fallible, but now has time to prove himself the "remarkable" PM that he is.
The Sunday Express says Mr Brown - hailed by Tony Blair as the "clunking fist" - has been immortalised as the "clucking fist" by internet jokers. The paper's opinion column also accuses him of playing chicken over an early poll.
"Gutless Brown proves he has no stomach for a fight," it declares.
Scotland's most famous "son of the Manse" gets an equally rough ride on his home turf. Scotland on Sunday claims he faces a crisis of confidence amid concerns that he has "lost his nerve".
Meanwhile, the Sunday Herald laments a week in which the "Brown bounce led to an own goal". The Scottish Mail on Sunday reports SNP leader Alex Salmond's quip that the PM is "not so much the Grand Old Duke of York - more the big feartie from Fife".
Brown's Bad Day- repeated
Saturday, 6 October 2007
Why Labour should have had an election
- The economy. It probably will get worse next year.
- House prices. Outside London they are dropping.
- Personal debt. It is massive and would not be helped by a downturn.
- Tax. It is annoying people.
- 10 years in power. People want change and having given Brown a chance people will say enough is enough in 2009.
- Europe. This issue is now plaguing Labour and not the Tories. What a reverse.
- Tories are on the rise. The Labour Cabinet is not what is was. The best have moved on.
- The majority gave Brown a cusion that cold afford a few slip ups and still deliver victory.
I understand that there are several reasons not to go:
- The winter.
- The recent polls.
- EU Treaty.
- Electoral registor.
- Scotland.
- Tory resurgance.
But they do not outweigh the positives in my opinion. Clearly Brown has not come to the same conclusion but I tend to agree with Steve Richards of The Independent who is accusing Brown of having made a "colossal mistake". Brown will be accused of bottling it and although he will shrug off the short term strom it will haunt Brown and Labour in 2 years time. The Labour party will be down about this. They have been marched up the hill and now marched down in the face of a resurgent Tory party. The Labour supporters heads dropping is good news and hard to reverse. They will start to think that maybe they are on the ebb. I hope and believe they are right about that.
Six point Tory lead in the marginals says NOTW
Is the election off? NOTW thinks so.
Doooohhhhhh!
I thought he would have an election. I thought until recently we would be smashed again. I still think he would win by 30 or 40 seats but clearly the labour heirarchy think the time has gone.
Damnit.
But if he does not go now when will he? It will probably have to be as late as possible and I reckon he will lose then.
Patrick Mercer is back on board
Sunday, 30 September 2007
Wellington boots
Although it is in a good cause as they are now showing a video of Tory grandees mucking in on various social action projects. I wonder how the one near to conference is going? I am sure they will tell us on the last day.
Lots of references being made to social action and the third sector. Social action is good, it should be part of everyday life, that is what society is about. However I am not yet convinced that the third sector can be the answer to areas where the government has failed. I just don't think the third sector is up to it. the itroduction would have to be very gradual.
Brown on Burma
I think there is only one player on the stage here and that is China. They are the key player and just how democratic are they and what is their human rights record like? However they are still best placed to intervene, although India could help too as it also has some influence.
Finally our own record in Burma is not the best. We never cared too much about it other than as a place that could upset the Raj. The wikipedia page on Burma is very good.
Tories Conference hit by deafening silence
Hezza in the Telegraph- The best bit
He is right, there is a stack of stuff to attack Brown on. DC should and will go for it.
David Cameron's chat with Andrew Marr
Saturday, 29 September 2007
Play Taxman Pacman!
Bill of Rights
Trust Fund Toffs- The Tory Elite
- Well you cannot be blamed for being born into a family with a bit of money. Can you?
- Nor can it be your fault if your parents send you to a top public school. Can it?
- If you work hard and get to Oxbridge and flourish that can only be good. Surely?
- Doing well in CCHQ as a CRD bod is a sign of determination. Must be?
- Working in communications in the corporate world, doing well and becoming an MP and then Tory Leader are signs of outstanding success. Has to be?
Well it is not the last point that just seems to slightly grate with people, it is the first two really. The ones where DC obviosly had no say in the matter.
But that combined with his "inner circle" being perceived as of the same stock does stick at the back of people's minds. White van man thinks maybe "they are different, out of touch" etc.
It is unfair on DC but I think he must be wary of Labour jibes on the point as their does seem to be a slight resonance with people, you know, thoughts like "bugger off Goldsmith, stop lecturing us on the environment, you can afford it, we can't".
Conservative Home readers causing trouble
- Grassroots members would like to see a manifesto that reduces taxation, increases prison places, increases funding for the armed forces, scraps ID cards and delivers English votes for English laws.
- Members disagree with Tory promises to match Labour's spending promises. By more than two-to-one they would like less spending and more of the 'proceeds of growth' to be shared between lower taxation and lower borrowing.
- 55% of members would like to see a bigger emphasis on immigration within Tory campaigning. The same proportion fear that the party's policy position on higher green taxation is a voter loser.
The above are just same old same old. There is more to life for most people than immigration, tax and law and order.
DC will not focus on the above at conference but he will talk about them which should at least keep the "grassroots" happy.
The Polls
Today’s polls are grim for the Tories. Labour lead by double digits in both and with a uniform national swing would have a majority well into three figures. Gordon Brown is also well ahead of David Cameron on the key personal measures. According to YouGov, Cameron has a net negative rating of 41 on being in touch with the concerns of people like you while Brown scores a plus 10 rating on this question. Populus has Brown leading 60 to 45% on the issue of caring about the problems that ordinary people face. While 50% think that Brown has answers to the key issues facing the country compared to only 30% for Cameron. YouGov also finds that 57% see Cameron as a lightweight compared to Brown and 56% think he is too like Blair. 64% of voters have little idea of what a Conservative government would be like. (Although, this numbers should fall with the planned policy blitz in Blackpool.)
There is one number in the polls, though, that should give the Tories cheer. YouGov reports that 58% of voters think that if Brown calls an election this year he will be doing so because “he believes Labour would win an early election but might lose the next election if he put it off until later.”
Sunday, 23 September 2007
Election Fever
Here are the two likely scenarios and the reasons for them;
1. Election called next week:
• Labour has a good week, banks don't crash, animal diseases don't spread.
• Brown overshadows the start of the Tory party conference with a fever pitch of 'will he or won't he' speculation, before announcing on October 2nd that the country will vote on the 25th.
• His rationale is that the polls may never be better, David Cameron may never be weaker, the Tories will be denied the time they crave to spend millions in marginal seats. And Brown can say that the opposition parties, the polls and parts of the media demanded that he get his own mandate.
2. Election not called next week:
• Brown decides that he doesn't wish to risk becoming a Trivial Pursuit question - "Who was the shortest serving prime minister who did not die in office?" Answer - Gordon Brown with just 120 days in office (if he lost an election on October 25th). George Canning served only 119 having taken office in 1827, caught pneumonia and died.
•Ever the strategic player, Brown wants his spending review, Iraq troop announcement and health review in place before going to the polls and he fears that the polls might not survive the dark nights, a tricky EU summit on October 18th and more financial uncertainty.
• Brown still overshadows start of the Tory conference with a fever pitch of "will he or won't he" speculation, thus damaging his rivals best opportunity for a re-launch.
• When no election is called the Labour party points out that Brown always said that he was "getting on with the job" and that his "focus is on the work ahead". They point also to the following comments last week by Alastair Darling on GMTV: "I think people know there is a new Government, they have got a new prime minister, but they want the Government to get on with the job we were elected to do. I do not get any sense that people inside Government or outside Government are anxious for a dash to the polls."
• Labour encourages people to write that Brown could have won but decided not to go to the polls in the national interest.
Nick concludes that it is one "helluva" decision. I agree. It is tough and perhaps the events set for net weeks conference can help.
I reckon if the situation is this fevered and favourable by next Monday, Gordon may just go for it.
Tuesday, 4 September 2007
The latest poll from Populus.
The Lions of Basra
Michael Ancram
He has written in the Telegraph asking the Tories to recapture their "soul". He also published a pamphlet entitled "still a conservative".
He has a point, that it is time to move on from rebranding and also that we must bear in mind our broad beleifs.
But a) we are moving on, the policy reviews as he himself states, are drawing to a close and we can go on the attack showing ourselves as the alternative. B) he should not have gone public. It means a day of bad media headlines on one hand set against yet more of Brown on TV.
It just does not help one bit, except for him as we all now know of his pamphlet.
Saturday, 1 September 2007
The Tory Transport Issue
I think Goldsmith and Gummer should go for the idea and recommend it as a policy. They will not now I suspect.
Personally I do not want more and more plane noise in the skies of the south east. I do not think the benefits of huge airports are all they are cracked up to be.
Yes we need airports that business find easy to use and commute from. London's financial centre must be cared for. We also should have a pleasant experience when going on holiday. Nothing controversial there.
However we do not need to further develop the UK as the centre of a hub and spoke system for major carriers. Why do we do this. The revenue gained is not vast, the jobs created by it are not inspiring and a large chunk filled by EU migrant labour. The environmental and nosie pollution outweighs any other benefit.
Getting rid of the hub and spoke system would create a bit of space in busy landing slots. Once that is done we should indeed scrap most internal flights. This would free up yet more landing slots and prevent the need for expansion. It would also force everyone to upgrade our other transport infrastructure that is not now good enough.
Having the UK as a global aviation hub is just nuts and not related to it being a global financial centre.
Go for it Gummer.
Conservative Party's Private Poll
Does not look that bad at all. I do think that it is nearer the truth. People have been reasonably happy with Gordon Brown and so have given him the benefit of the doubt. Deep down everyone knows he is the other half of a team that has run government for years and so he is accountable for the problems that have arisen on his watch just as much as Blair was (and is).
Election fever
Surely not an election announcement. You cannot tell anything from the polls yet and so why take the risk.
I doubt it will be anything exciting but keeps the politicos interested.
Monday, 27 August 2007
Anarchy in the UK
Sunday, 29 July 2007
IT
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Saturday, 28 July 2007
The future
There needs to be a real hunger, a sense of direction and an all consuming desire to succeed.
The direction must come now. Speed up the policy reviews and once they are out pick the policies and go for them all out.
Decisions also need to be taken in relation to Europe. The message must be loud and clear that the EU treaty is a constitution in all but name and that we the British people are being treated like idiots.
Social policy via breakthrough Britain must also be sold hard. It is spot on and strikes a cord with the public who see the problems day in day out.
Tax and immigration will also have to be faced up to. A) we can't go on living on the never never B) The rate of immigration is so high it affects everything else from housing, house prices, transport pressure, land pressure, pressure on the NHS, on education, social welfare, social cohesion etc etc. Either you slow the rate or you set aside large provisions to deal with the consequences. Avoiding the whole issue is madness but so is focussing on it to the exclusion of all else.
Finally, the Tory party is more than brand Cameron. Everyone needs to pitch in and to be able to pitch in. Relying on theCameron effect alone will end in tears as soon as the media tire of him. (Which they are as yet not near despite a blip of late).
MPs angry at written statements
Because they are supposed to read them?
Or because they are churned out on mass at the end of term?
Or possibly because this Government buries so much it is plain depressing?
All three I think.
Shad Cab part-timers
Consider the number of part-timers in the Shadow Cabinet, based on the latest Register of Members' Interests:
William Hague: two paid directorships for companies that have nothing to do with politics or the Tories; 'parliamentary adviser' for three companies to the tune of about £100k pa; regular speeches, worth about £120k so far this year; biographer.
Dr Liam Fox: lectures on emergency medical procedures for a company of which he is a shareholder.
Francis Maude: seven paid directorships for companies that have nothing to do with politics or the Tories, of one of which he is a shareholder; paid parliamentary adviser to Barclays.
David Willetts: chairman of two science companies, of one of which he is a shareholder; paid adviser to a merchant bank and to a firm of actuaries.
Andrew Mitchell: seven paid directorships, six of which are for different companies of the Lazards group, none of which have anything to do with politics or the Tories; "senior strategy adviser" to Accenture, at ca£40k pa.
Alan Duncan: one paid directorship, for a "catalytic coating" company; income as owner of Harcourt Consultants, oil and gas advisers.
Oliver Letwin: paid non-executive director of NM Rothschild Corporate Finance Ltd.
Eric Pickles: one paid non-executive directorship; paid parliamentary adviser to the Royal British Legion.
Michael Gove: earnings as a Times columnist, broadcaster and author.
Grant Shapps: two paid directorships for companies in which he has a registerable shareholding and which have nothing to do with politics or the Tory party.
Jeremy Hunt: paid adviser to Bristol Port Company.
Lord Strathclyde: five paid directorships.
Baroness Anelay of St Johns: director of World Travel Market.
A Con Home Comment
"Our Army is undermanned, run down and being hung out to dry in Iraq.
Our navy is sailing at half-speed due to fuel rationing.
Our Aircraft carriers have not been ordered and there are no planes currently in the Fleet Air Arm anyway.
Our Liberties are being eroded by the EU and by our own government.
Our taxes are too high.
The state is too big.
We are force-fed drivel about the environment morning, noon and night.
Our cities are full of illegal immigrants and our streets are not safe.
Half our children cannot read as well as their grandparents.
Half the country cannot work out what one eighth of 32 is
Elderly people are effectively condenmed to to death if sent to our filthy disease-ridden hospitals.
Our electoral system is being debased and corrupted.
Muslim terrorists roam our Country whilst British citizens are told to mind their P & Q's
Forgive me if the only question I can think of is:
'Why the hell are we wasting our time on being missionaries to the world while our own fellow citizens are left to rot?"
THAT IS ONE DEPRESSED TORY
Telegraph stating the bleeding obvious
Well obviously. All the parties need to attract as many votes as possible.
Conservative Home asks
That's certainly is the view of Peter Oborne in today's Mail:
"The Conservative Party really is in a very grave crisis indeed, and that crisis is about much more than the temporary difficulties facing David Cameron and the small group of modernisers who advise him. It concerns the future of the Conservative Party itself. Gordon Brown, who is an accomplished and highly intelligent strategist, understands this extremely well. That is why almost everything he has sought to do since entering Downing Street five weeks ago has been designed to entrench the Labour Party in the centre, in some ways even the centre-Right, of British politics."
The answer is NO. Crisis? what crisis? there will only be one if we talk ourselves into one.
David Cameron
He should ignore the death throws of the shire seated Tory MP's.
Instead Cameron should go on holiday and come back ready to take on Brown.
Sunday, 1 July 2007
Will Maude go in the reshuffle. I hope so!
Forget the grammar school row it is the last Tory Conference that he was useless at. People waited days for the security checks to be carried out. During that time they were stuck inside a theatre awaiting their name to be called out. Maude came in at one time to apologise, he succeeded in winding up the entire room. His people skills sucked and he did not seem to appreciate how upset people were.
Say no to Michael Gove
Sunday, 24 June 2007
Harman
However she did not do a good job as solicitor general and some of her legal refrom comments are awful like her proposals for the AG role.